Saturday, September 6, 2008

Sarah Barracuda

One thing that stands out for me in Anne Kilkinney's first-hand perspective on "Sarah Barracuda" is her reference to Gov. Palin's "unbridled ambition and predatory ruthlessness." While appalling to us, it is what makes her so appealing to the conservative base: she's tough, she goes after corruption even in her own party, she'll clean up the mess. A pit bull with lipstick. And never mind that it's her party that made the mess, for the most part. Under the radar, this is the way they're going to run against Bush without saying so.

And now that the Republican masters of image manipulation are doing the make-over, she is going to be a formidable force to deal with. Not only is she the barracuda who will clean up Washington, she's
also the new Madonna of the Unaborted Babies, the Pro-Life Poster Family.

They'll probably stop the TrooperGate investigation in Alaska, claiming it's politically motivated to smear her, and besides how many voters really care if she bent the rules a little bit? It's the way Republicans do things -- all the way to the Attorney General and the White House.

By keeping her away from pesky reporters who ask questions, they will avoid showing how ill-prepared she is as well as side-step inconvenient questions about Troopergate and other issues. In addition, it's a scam: we'll all tsk-tsk about their fear of letting her speak, and expectations for her in the debate will be very low. Meanwhile, they buy time to give her a crash course in what she needs to know. And Voila!!! She performs much better than expected and "wins" the debate.

What's to be done? Obama continues on the high road, Biden attacks McCain, not Palin, and send in the women surrogates (Clinton, Sebelius, Pelosi, Napolitano, McCaskill, and others -- what a lineup!) to make the challenges to Palin's extreme conservatism and lack of experience.

And take heart that the early evidence suggests that she has energized their base and resuscitated McCain, but that she does not have much appeal to the moderate Republicans and the Independents.

And that, even at the height of their post-convention bounce, Obama is still leading in the polls !!!!

Ralph

The Sarah Palin problems with the truth

A friend passed along an email from an Anne Kilkenny, who claims she has known Sarah since 1992. While it's even handed, it also points out some disturbing aspects of Sarah, most noticably her slippery relationship with the truth. I've quoted the email below. It's long, but informative.

I am a resident of Wasilla, Alaska. I have known Sarah since 1992. Everyone here knows Sarah, so it is nothing special to say we are on a first-name basis. Our children have attended the same schools. Her father was my child's favorite substitute teacher. I also am on a first name basis with her parents and mother-in-law. I attended more City Council meetings during her administration than about 99% of the residents of the city.

She is enormously popular; in every way she's like the most popular girl in middle school. Even men who think she is a poor
choice and won't vote for her can't quit smiling when talking about her because she is a "babe".

CLAIM VS FACT
* "Hockey mom": true for a few years

* "PTA mom": true years ago when her first-born was in elementary school, not since

* "NRA supporter": absolutely true

* social conservative: mixed. Opposes gay marriage, BUT vetoed a bill that would have denied benefits to employees in same-sex relationships (said she did this because it was unconsitutional).

* pro-creationism: mixed. Supports it, BUT did nothing as Governor to promote it.

* "Pro-life": mixed. Knowingly gave birth to a Down's syndrome baby BUT declined to call a special legislative session on some pro-life legislation

* "Experienced": Some high schools have more students than Wasilla has residents. Many cities have more residents than the state of Alaska. No legislative experience other than City Council. Little hands-on supervisory or managerial experience; needed help of a city administrator to run town of about 5,000.

* political maverick: not at all

* gutsy: absolutely!

* open & transparent: ??? Good at keeping secrets. Not good at explaining actions.

* has a developed philosophy of public policy: no

* "a Greenie": no. Turned Wasilla into a wasteland of big box stores and disconnected parking lots. Is pro-drilling off-shore and in ANWR.

* fiscal conservative: not by my definition!

* pro-infrastructure: No. Promoted a sports complex and park in a city without a sewage treatment plant or storm drainage system. Built streets to early 20th century standards.

* pro-tax relief: Lowered taxes for businesses, increased tax burden on residents

* pro-small government: No. Oversaw greatest expansion of city government in Wasilla's history.

* pro-labor/pro-union. No. Just because her husband works union doesn't make her pro-labor. I have seen nothing to support any claim that she is pro-labor/pro-union.

WHY AM I WRITING THIS?

First, I have long believed in the importance of being an informed voter. I am a voter registrar. For 10 years I put on student voting programs in the schools. If you google my name (Anne Kilkenny + Alaska), you will find references to my participation in local government, education, and PTA/parent organizations.

Secondly, I've always operated in the belief that "Bad things happen when good people stay silent". Few people know as much as I do because few have gone to as many City Council meetings.

Third, I am just a housewife. I don't have a job she can bump me out of. I don't belong to any organization that she can hurt. But, I am no fool; she is immensely popular here, and it is likely that this will cost me somehow in the future: that's life.

Fourth, she has hated me since back in 1996, when I was one of the 100 or so people who rallied to support the City Librarian against Sarah's attempt at censorship.

Fifth, I looked around and realized that everybody else was afraid to say anything because they were somehow vulnerable.


It is astonishing and almost scary how well she can keep a secret. She kept her most recent pregnancy a secret from her children and parents for seven months.

She recently gave birth to a Down's syndrome baby. There is no cover-up involved, here; Trig is her baby.


She is savvy. She doesn't take positions; she just "puts things out there" and if they prove to be popular, then she takes credit.

Her experience is as mayor of a city with a population of about 5,000 (at the time), and less than 2 years as governor of a state with about 670,000 residents.

During her mayoral administration most of the actual work of running this small city was turned over to an administrator. She had been pushed to hire this administrator by party power-brokers after she had gotten herself into some trouble over precipitous firings which had given rise to a recall campaign.

Sarah campaigned in Wasilla as a "fiscal conservative". During her 6 years as Mayor, she increased general government expenditures by over 33%. During those same 6 years the amount of taxes collected by the City increased by 38%. This was during a period of low inflation (1996-2002). She reduced progressive property taxes and increased a regressive sales tax which taxed even food. The tax cuts that she promoted benefited large corporate property owners way more than they benefited residents.

The huge increases in tax revenues during her mayoral administration weren't enough to fund everything on her wish list though, borrowed money was needed, too. She inherited a city with zero debt, but left it with indebtedness of over $22 million. What did Mayor Palin encourage the voters to borrow money for? Was it the infrastructure that she said she supported? The sewage treatment plant that the city lacked? or a new library? No. $1m for a park. $15m-plus for construction of a multi-use sports complex which she rushed through to build on a piece of property that the City didn't even have clear title to, that was still in litigation 7 yrs later--to the delight of the lawyers involved! The sports complex itself is a nice addition to the community but a huge money pit, not the profit-generator she claimed it would be. She also supported bonds for $5.5m for road projects that could have been done in 5-7 yrs without any borrowing.

While Mayor, City Hall was extensively remodeled and her office redecorated more than once.


As an oil producer, the high price of oil has created a budget surplus in Alaska. Rather than invest this surplus in technology that will make us energy independent and increase efficiency, as Governor she proposed distribution of this surplus to every individual in the state.

In this time of record state revenues and budget surpluses, she recommended that the state borrow/bond for road projects, even while she proposed distribution of surplus state revenues: spend today's surplus, borrow for needs.

She's not very tolerant of divergent opinions or open to outside ideas or compromise. As Mayor, she fought ideas that weren't generated by her or her staff. Ideas weren't evaluated on their merits, but on the basis of who proposed them.

While Sarah was Mayor of Wasilla she tried to fire our highly respected City Librarian because the Librarian refused to consider removing from the library some books that Sarah wanted removed. City residents rallied to the defense of the City Librarian and against Palin's attempt at out-and-out censorship, so Palin backed down and withdrew her termination letter. People who fought her attempt to oust the Librarian are on her enemies list to this day.

Sarah complained about the "old boy's club" when she first ran for Mayor, so what did she bring Wasilla? A new set of "old boys". Palin fired most of the experienced staff she inherited. At the City and as Governor she hired or elevated new, inexperienced, obscure people, creating a staff totally dependent on her for their jobs and eternally grateful and fiercely loyal--loyal to the point of abusing their power to further her personal agenda, as she has acknowledged happened in the case of pressuring the State's top cop (see below).

As Mayor, Sarah fired Wasilla's Police Chief because he "intimidated" her, she told the press. As Governor, her recent firing of Alaska's top cop has the ring of familiarity about it. He served at her pleasure and she had every legal right to fire him, but it's pretty clear that an important factor in her decision to fire him was because he wouldn't fire her sister's ex-husband, a State Trooper. Under investigation for abuse of power, she has had to admit that more than 2 dozen contacts were made between her staff and family to the person that she later fired, pressuring him to fire her ex-brother-in-law. She tried to replace the man she fired with a man who she knew had been reprimanded for sexual harassment; when this caused a public furor, she withdrew her support.

She has bitten the hand of every person who extended theirs to her in help. The City Council person who personally escorted her around town introducing her to voters when she first ran for Wasilla City Council became one of her first targets when she was later elected Mayor. She abruptly fired her loyal City Administrator; even people who didn't like the guy were stunned by this ruthlessness.

Fear of retribution has kept all of these people from saying anything publicly about her.

When then-Governor Murkowski was handing out political plums, Sarah got the best, Chair of the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission: one of the few jobs not in Juneau and one of the best paid. She had no background in oil & gas issues. Within months of scoring this great job which paid $122,400/yr, she was complaining in the press about the high salary. I was told that she hated that job: the commute, the structured hours, the work. Sarah became aware that a member of this Commission (who was also the State Chair of the Republican Party) engaged in unethical behavior on the job. In a gutsy move which some undoubtedly cautioned her could be political suicide, Sarah solved all her problems in one fell swoop: got out of the job she hated and garnered gobs of media attention as the patron saint of ethics and as a gutsy fighter against the "old boys' club" when she dramatically quit, exposing this man's ethics violations (for which he was fined).

As Mayor, she had her hand stuck out as far as anyone for pork from Senator Ted Stevens. Lately, she has castigated his pork-barrel politics and publicly humiliated him. She only opposed the "bridge to nowhere" after it became clear that it would be unwise not to.

As Governor, she gave the Legislature no direction and budget guidelines, then made a big grandstand display of line-item vetoing projects, calling them pork. Public outcry and further legislative action restored most of these projects--which had been vetoed simply because she was not aware of their importance--but with the unobservant she had gained a reputation as "anti-pork".

She is solidly Republican: no political maverick. The State party leaders hate her because she has bit them in the back and humiliated them. Other members of the party object to her self-description as a fiscal conservative.

Around Wasilla there are people who went to high school with Sarah. They call her "Sarah Barracuda" because of her unbridled ambition and predatory ruthlessness. Before she became so powerful, very ugly stories circulated around town about shenanigans she pulled to be made point guard on the high school basketball team. When Sarah's mother-in-law, a highly respected member of the community and experienced manager, ran for Mayor, Sarah refused to endorse her.

Friday, September 5, 2008

No distractions, just the facts, ma'am

Just now, coming off both party conventions, we are awash in the stuff and noise that may be a distraction from the issues themselves and from predictive factors.

Sarah Palin may have been a last-minute, desperate pick when McCain's lust for Lieberman collided with Karl Rove's veto and his insistence on Romney. Ridge had apparently been ruled out because of his pro-choice stance, Bobby Jindal had taken himself out, and apparently Charlie Christ's last minute engagement wasn't enough to dispel rumors that he is gay. So they were left with Palin and Pawlenty. Pawlenty would have been the safe choice; Palin was bold but risky. But the Republican marketing team is first rate.

Palin gave the convention the sizzle that was missing. Now it looks like they've revamped the whole campaign strategy around her appeal: maverick, reformer, ultra-conservative on social issues. The right wing is ecstatic. But it doesn't do much for moderates and independents, I'm thinking.

However, we should not let ourselves be distracted by all this. McCain's speech last night showed he has no real platform to run on except vague promises of reform -- meaning he's running against George Bush without naming him. Did he mention Bush by name during that whole long boring speech? They're trying to refurbish his tarnished maverick image with Sarah's fresh maverick image.

Obama and Biden should ignore Palen and stick to pointing out how McCain embraced Bush, when he was trying to get the nomination, only to run away from him now. The fact is that McCain himself has bragged that he voted with Bush 90% of the time. So how is he the maverick he's now trying to become? It's a little like that wonderful book title by Quentin Crisp, "How to Become a Virgin."

But forget all that. Here's the real simple answer. Professor Alan Abramowitz of Emory University, an authority on election history, has developed a forecasting model that correctly predicted the popular vote within two percentage points in every presidential election since 1988. He looks at only 3 factors: (1) The presidential approval rating in the final Gallup Poll in June (not good); (2) the change in real gross domestic product during the second quarter of the election year (bad); and (3) whether the president’s party has controlled the White House for only one term or longer (two = bad).

Using this model, he predicts an Obama win by 54.3% to 45.7%. Remember, this is popular vote, but with that margin it would be extremely unlikely not to translate to an electoral win.

Ralph

War Hero

What McCain went through was horrible, and no one should have to go through it. It was moving last night when he spoke about 'they broke me'. And I think everyone knows what that means. Rape, often gang rape, is a common aspect of torture. How anyone comes back from that is beyond me. The fact he did is a testament to his inner strength, and stubborn refusal to give in, and in that regards it's relevant to the election.

But it's certainly less important than what he thinks. And you're right, he ceased to be a maverick once the race started. He ceased to be a maverick when he let the Rovian approach to elections take over his campaign. Lies, lies, lies, distortions, name-calling. This is the exact sort of divisiveness Bush engaged in - and it was interesting to note Bush speech writers wrote both McCain's and Palin's speeches. (I guess the fact Obama is intelligent enough to write his own speeches doesn't count?)

If he were to get elected, is there anyone with half a brain who actually thinks this sort of attitude will help McCain get anything passed by a Democratic Congress? Palin doesn't seem to realize she can't just 'fire' all the Senators if they don't do her bidding. DC isn't some small podunk town. I guess she'll be too busy at the Library of Congress anyways, looking for books that need to be banned.

You know - to jump to another thought - everyone laughed at her line about the difference between a pit bull and a hockey Mom is 'lipstick'. That's a great image Sarah has of women, isn't it? A dog bred to kill, a dog of limited initelligence, a dog that is good at one think only, attacking others of its kind. What a vision of womanhood she not only proposes, but revels in. What century is her brain in?
richard

audacious policy

I've just finished watching McCain's acceptance speech. Thanks god it's finally over. Some of the NPR historical pundits thought it was a great speech, although Mark Shields did not. David Brooks thought it was a good speech but he was troubled by the policy disconnect -- running against his own party while espousing most of their same policies.

I just thought it was tiresome. Let's all concede that McCain is a genuine war hero and give him all the accolades he needs. But it is not a qualification to be president. He might once have been a maverick, but he tarnished that label the day he turned around and embraced Dubya and the tactics that so viciously smeared him in 2000. Now he's got the same people running his campaign, while pandering the the religious right for their votes.

It's really an audacious strategy when you think about it. The candidate for the party in power is running on a pledge to throw the rascals out. He wants to shake things up in Washington, and then continue most of the same failed policies.
Ralph

Thursday, September 4, 2008

Palin will play great in small towns and with working class women. There are two potential negatives - working class white men will be turned off by her 'mouthiness'. They don't like women who are sarcastic and put you down. They will see her as the emasculating popular girl in high school who wanted nothing to do with them. And I don't think her tone, accurately described as shrill and sarcastic, will play well at all in the South, where politeness and manners are more important. McCain isn't big in the South to begin with. So this does give Obama an opening. Same with upper middle class neighborhoods. She sounds a bit like what she is, the hot cheerleader/in-group clique leader who got away with being petty and catty because she looked good and was popular.
Richard



Wonder what's the story behind Sarah's "attending 5 colleges in 6 years? And pretty undistinguished schools at that: Hawaii Pacific College (attended fall semester as a freshman), North Idaho College (2 semesters), University of Idaho (2 semesters), Matanuska-Susitna College in Alaska (1 semester), then back to University of Idaho (3 semesters and graduation).

Let's forget all the trivia, though, and start asking her some hard questions to find out things like what's her capacity for diplomacy? Can she negotiate or only demand and then fire people who don't do it her way? Does she have any grasp of the lessons of history? What are her ideas about the separation of church and state? Does she have a working knowledge of the Constitution?
Ralph