Much has been said about the young people who are such a vital part of the Obama campaign -- not just in supplying enthusiasm and willingness to work all hours, but the brains and organizational ability.
Sean Quinn, the FiveThirtyEight associate who has been making the national tour of campaign sites, finally reported on Georgia. Even with the "skeletal staff" left behind when the national campaign decided they needed to relocate some to more competitive states back in September, the Georgia operation still has 33 offices and 175 stanging locations in the state, more than 4 times as much as any prior Democratic campaign.
Communications Director Caroline Adelman "credited wunderkind field operator Alex Lofton, now in Ohio, with setting up the infrastructure before he was considered too valuable not to have in a more competitive state. He opened up all the offices, he trained all the kids, did conference calls twice a day," Adelman explained.
"He was 23 and doing things in a way twice his age couldn't accomplish." Such are Obama's young brilliant organizers the campaign's great underwritten story. . . . "Really, in Georgia, that's all we needed," Adelman said. "The rest of it was neighbor to neighbor. People needed to see people in their own neighborhood" talking about Barack Obama. "
Now THAT is community organizing, you Republican snobs !!!
Ralph
Monday, November 3, 2008
The last, final, end of game 'poll talk'
Just think -- after tomorrow, you won't be bombarded with my poll obsessions any more. I didn't used to think much of them either until I encountered the super-brainy guys who crunch numbers and also analyze the numbers they crunch at RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight.
So, here goes -- last round.
New tracking polls reported by RCP today show Obama edging up another notch, with 14 polls taken over the past 5 days averaging out at 7.3%. The more recent ones, done just yesterday and today, are even higher: 7%, 8%, and 9%. Two of those are related to the conservative organizations WallStreetJournal and FOX News.
Late tightening, with uncommitteds moving to McCain, doesn't seem to be happening. The marginal tightening in some battle-ground states, where McCain is making a last ditch stand, seems offset by Obama also picking up more. He is now at 50 to 55% in 13 of those 14 polls. If you're over 50%, you can only lose if a lot of those voters desert you.
Meanwhile, over at 538, here's Nate Silver's final take: Barak Obama is on the verge of a victory, perhaps a decisive victory. In the electoral vote race, Nate predicts Obama will take all the states Kerry won in 2008, holding on to Philadelphia, where Obama retains a +8% despite McCain's late push there. He also predicts that he is almost certain to take Iowa and New Mexico, which will give him 264 of the 270 needed to win.
He then has the relative ease of picking up 6 more votes from among the "in play" states, in several of which he has a significant lead: CO, VA, NV, OH, FL, NC, MO, and IN. Taking NV or NM at 5 each would give him a tie, while taking any one of the others alsone would give him more than 270 and the election. Or the combination of any two would give him the win with votes to spare.
In contrast, Nate says:
I rest my case. Let's all try to get some sleep tonight. We may be up late tomorrow night.
Ralph
So, here goes -- last round.
New tracking polls reported by RCP today show Obama edging up another notch, with 14 polls taken over the past 5 days averaging out at 7.3%. The more recent ones, done just yesterday and today, are even higher: 7%, 8%, and 9%. Two of those are related to the conservative organizations WallStreetJournal and FOX News.
Late tightening, with uncommitteds moving to McCain, doesn't seem to be happening. The marginal tightening in some battle-ground states, where McCain is making a last ditch stand, seems offset by Obama also picking up more. He is now at 50 to 55% in 13 of those 14 polls. If you're over 50%, you can only lose if a lot of those voters desert you.
Meanwhile, over at 538, here's Nate Silver's final take: Barak Obama is on the verge of a victory, perhaps a decisive victory. In the electoral vote race, Nate predicts Obama will take all the states Kerry won in 2008, holding on to Philadelphia, where Obama retains a +8% despite McCain's late push there. He also predicts that he is almost certain to take Iowa and New Mexico, which will give him 264 of the 270 needed to win.
He then has the relative ease of picking up 6 more votes from among the "in play" states, in several of which he has a significant lead: CO, VA, NV, OH, FL, NC, MO, and IN. Taking NV or NM at 5 each would give him a tie, while taking any one of the others alsone would give him more than 270 and the election. Or the combination of any two would give him the win with votes to spare.
In contrast, Nate says:
Winning any one of them may be fairly difficult for John McCain, but winning all of them at once, as John McCain probably must do, is nearly impossible. . . . McCain's chances, in essence, boil down to the polling being significantly wrong, for such reasons as a Bradley Effect or "Shy Tory" Effect, or extreme complacency among Democratic voters.I saw an analysis of polling with and without cellphone calls, and the data suggest that including exclusive cellphone users increases Obama's vote by about 2%.
However, even if these phenomenon are manifest to some extent, it is unlikely that they are worth a full 6-7 points for McCain. Moreover, there are at least as many reasons to think that the polls are understating Obama's support, because of such factors as the cellphone problem, his superior groundgame operation, and the substantial lead that he has built up among early voters.
McCain's chances of victory are estimated at 1.9 percent, their lowest total of the year.
I rest my case. Let's all try to get some sleep tonight. We may be up late tomorrow night.
Ralph
Palin - Hopefully for the Last Time
It's gotten to the point where I don't even know what to say about Palin anymore. Should I point out that she attended a rally in Florida where there was not 1 sign featuring John McCain's name?
Or stick with her stunning statement that we're at war with both Iraq and Iran?
Or rail, again, about her claiming anyone who points out the negativity of her comments is violating her First Amendment rights - but it's okay for her to be negative and spout lies about her opponent?
Or how about her response to a question, at a recent rally, asking her why there was not a single minority at the rally and what she could do about that. After flubbing around a bit, she spouted "The Constitution preaches..." Then immediately pointed to Todd and said how "We have to live with it every day," i.e. being a minority? I guess?
Now the internet is rife with rumors once again, people offering suggestions as to why Palin won't release her medical records. Maybe she had an abortion one person writes. Maybe she's manic depressive, writes another. Maybe Trig really isn't her baby.
The simple response to these sorts of rumors is to say it's unfair to offer such speculations about any candidate. You might also say, Well, she deserves it. Her entire campaign is based on unsubstantiated rumors and innuendos she spews forth about Obama. What goes around, comes around
For me all the rumors, and stories about her idiotic remarks, or falling for a prank by 2 guys whose French accents were so bad a 6-year-old could have spotted it - those obscure what is really the most serious issue I see with Palin. Her utter disregard for any sort of transparency in her public life.
For someone who claims to be a 'reformer', Palin has been particularly cryptic about her past life and her governance. We don't have any records of her 6 years trying to get a Bachelor's degree. She stonewalled the investigation into Troopergate, which ultimately found she had abused the power of her office. All her work emails were sent to a private account so she could avoid legitimate scrutiny. She refused to release her medical records, then said she would, then never released them. She wouldn't talk to the press at all, then only in tightly controlled circumstances.
If you conduct your life as a public figure with such blatant disregard for openness and honesty, then you get what you deserve.
I could go on. But the point is, here is Sarah Palin is at the beginning of what is threatening to be a political career that will last through my lifetime, and from the start she has conducted herself politically with such secrecy and disregard for the public's right to know that it borders on paranoia.
The simplest way to end rumors about her medical records is to release them. The same with questions about impropriety in her handling of official Alaskan governmental business - release the emails. Questions of her intelligence? Stand before a battery of microphones, unscripted, and take questions for an hour, just like every other candidate.
Bush was caricatured by the left as a buffoon. And what did that get us? He was elected twice, and left us an economy in shambles, a useless war, and lack of respect for the US around the world. Instead of focusing on his fractured syntax, maybe if we had focused more on his ideas we might have been able to prevent him from being elected.
Let's not make the same mistake with Palin. Yes, she comes across as uneducated, willfully ignorant, and ditzy.
But her most important, and dangerous, quality is her desire for secrecy and unaccountability. That's nothing to laugh at.
Or stick with her stunning statement that we're at war with both Iraq and Iran?
Or rail, again, about her claiming anyone who points out the negativity of her comments is violating her First Amendment rights - but it's okay for her to be negative and spout lies about her opponent?
Or how about her response to a question, at a recent rally, asking her why there was not a single minority at the rally and what she could do about that. After flubbing around a bit, she spouted "The Constitution preaches..." Then immediately pointed to Todd and said how "We have to live with it every day," i.e. being a minority? I guess?
Now the internet is rife with rumors once again, people offering suggestions as to why Palin won't release her medical records. Maybe she had an abortion one person writes. Maybe she's manic depressive, writes another. Maybe Trig really isn't her baby.
The simple response to these sorts of rumors is to say it's unfair to offer such speculations about any candidate. You might also say, Well, she deserves it. Her entire campaign is based on unsubstantiated rumors and innuendos she spews forth about Obama. What goes around, comes around
For me all the rumors, and stories about her idiotic remarks, or falling for a prank by 2 guys whose French accents were so bad a 6-year-old could have spotted it - those obscure what is really the most serious issue I see with Palin. Her utter disregard for any sort of transparency in her public life.
For someone who claims to be a 'reformer', Palin has been particularly cryptic about her past life and her governance. We don't have any records of her 6 years trying to get a Bachelor's degree. She stonewalled the investigation into Troopergate, which ultimately found she had abused the power of her office. All her work emails were sent to a private account so she could avoid legitimate scrutiny. She refused to release her medical records, then said she would, then never released them. She wouldn't talk to the press at all, then only in tightly controlled circumstances.
If you conduct your life as a public figure with such blatant disregard for openness and honesty, then you get what you deserve.
I could go on. But the point is, here is Sarah Palin is at the beginning of what is threatening to be a political career that will last through my lifetime, and from the start she has conducted herself politically with such secrecy and disregard for the public's right to know that it borders on paranoia.
The simplest way to end rumors about her medical records is to release them. The same with questions about impropriety in her handling of official Alaskan governmental business - release the emails. Questions of her intelligence? Stand before a battery of microphones, unscripted, and take questions for an hour, just like every other candidate.
Bush was caricatured by the left as a buffoon. And what did that get us? He was elected twice, and left us an economy in shambles, a useless war, and lack of respect for the US around the world. Instead of focusing on his fractured syntax, maybe if we had focused more on his ideas we might have been able to prevent him from being elected.
Let's not make the same mistake with Palin. Yes, she comes across as uneducated, willfully ignorant, and ditzy.
But her most important, and dangerous, quality is her desire for secrecy and unaccountability. That's nothing to laugh at.
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Last pre-election day
The long, long trek is almost over.
For what they're worth, the polls have favored Obama for the past month and seem to be edging up even more for him here at the end, with several now giving him double digits, and the best of the weighted average tracking polls showing him up by about 7.0% with incremental daily trends toward him.
There are not enough uncommitted voters at this point to make the difference. The only nightmare is, as Richard keeps reminding us, whether people are lying to pollsters and how much effect Republican dirty tricks (voter intimidation, voter challenges, and machine tampering) will have.
The other huge factor now is the get-out-the-vote organization. This is the unrecognized secret weapon that has been operating for weeks and will be totally unleashed now. My favorite numbers cruncher, Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight, has also had a colleague, Sean Quinn, who has travelled the states with a photographer visiting some 50 cities to look at the Obama and McCain campaign offices around the country.
For the full story, go to http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/big-empty.html
Typical of what they found is that the McCain offices were sparsely occupied by one or two volunteers, sometimes making calls, sometimes chatting, and that their offices would close at 5pm and remain closed on weekends. In contrast, the Obama offices would be bustling with dozens of staff and volunteers open all hours, and full of "explosive energy."
I can add from personal experience here in Atlanta that I get sometimes half a dozen emails a day from various local Obama volunteers, inviting me to parties to help make phone calls or to other volunteer activities, rallies, get-out-the-vote drives, etc.
Quinn has been reporting on this tour incrementally, but now he has a summarizing article at the above link. His conclusion is:
The Democratic establishment scoffed at Howard Dean's plan to organize in all 50 states. The scoffing stopped with Hillary's defeat, largely by Obama's strategy of running in every state. Then McCain and Palin sneered at Obama's community organizer work. But this 50-state strategy and this organizing the electorate like a community may well prove to be what turns a good lead into a landslide election and a mandate to change our government down to its roots.
McCain and Palin are about to find out what community organizing is all about.
Ralph
For what they're worth, the polls have favored Obama for the past month and seem to be edging up even more for him here at the end, with several now giving him double digits, and the best of the weighted average tracking polls showing him up by about 7.0% with incremental daily trends toward him.
There are not enough uncommitted voters at this point to make the difference. The only nightmare is, as Richard keeps reminding us, whether people are lying to pollsters and how much effect Republican dirty tricks (voter intimidation, voter challenges, and machine tampering) will have.
The other huge factor now is the get-out-the-vote organization. This is the unrecognized secret weapon that has been operating for weeks and will be totally unleashed now. My favorite numbers cruncher, Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight, has also had a colleague, Sean Quinn, who has travelled the states with a photographer visiting some 50 cities to look at the Obama and McCain campaign offices around the country.
For the full story, go to http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/big-empty.html
Typical of what they found is that the McCain offices were sparsely occupied by one or two volunteers, sometimes making calls, sometimes chatting, and that their offices would close at 5pm and remain closed on weekends. In contrast, the Obama offices would be bustling with dozens of staff and volunteers open all hours, and full of "explosive energy."
I can add from personal experience here in Atlanta that I get sometimes half a dozen emails a day from various local Obama volunteers, inviting me to parties to help make phone calls or to other volunteer activities, rallies, get-out-the-vote drives, etc.
Quinn has been reporting on this tour incrementally, but now he has a summarizing article at the above link. His conclusion is:
These ground campaigns do not bear any relationship to one another. One side has something in the neighborhood of five million volunteers all assigned to very clear and specific pieces of the operation, and the other seems to have something like a thousand volunteers scattered throughout the country. Jon Tester's 2006 Senate race in Montana had more volunteers -- by a mile -- than John McCain's 2006 presidential campaign.
The Democratic establishment scoffed at Howard Dean's plan to organize in all 50 states. The scoffing stopped with Hillary's defeat, largely by Obama's strategy of running in every state. Then McCain and Palin sneered at Obama's community organizer work. But this 50-state strategy and this organizing the electorate like a community may well prove to be what turns a good lead into a landslide election and a mandate to change our government down to its roots.
McCain and Palin are about to find out what community organizing is all about.
Ralph
Obama, the incumbent . . . ? ?
SC SenatorLindsey Graham, McCain acolyte and chief spinner, has often sounded hysterical and unhinged when he gets going on TV talk shows. But does anyone have a clue as to what he meant this morning on Face the Nation when he said this?
I didn't see it, just saw the quote on TPM. Let's see: George Bush is the incumbent president; John McCain hates to admit it now, but he is of the same party, voted with him 90+% of the time, and wants to conintue most of his same policies, especially on taxes and our various wars. On top of that, McCain has been in Congress for 28 years, Obama for less than 3.
So how is Obama the incumbent? Explain it to me, Lindsey. Or have we reached the super-silly season, where the losing side will "just say things" without thought or shame?
Ralph
On Face the Nation, Sen. Lindsey Graham just said "we've seen a tightening of the race [and] I really believe Obama is the virtual incumbent and if he's not at 50 percent in North Carolina he's not going to win."
I didn't see it, just saw the quote on TPM. Let's see: George Bush is the incumbent president; John McCain hates to admit it now, but he is of the same party, voted with him 90+% of the time, and wants to conintue most of his same policies, especially on taxes and our various wars. On top of that, McCain has been in Congress for 28 years, Obama for less than 3.
So how is Obama the incumbent? Explain it to me, Lindsey. Or have we reached the super-silly season, where the losing side will "just say things" without thought or shame?
Ralph
It's hard to remain cautious
Despite all the factors that should make this a Democratic landslide year, despite recent polls showing Obama leading by 3% to 13% (average of 6.3%), despite the electoral vote projections showing that a McCain victory would require him to win every single one of the tossup states and take Pennsylvania away from Obama's persistent, strong lead there -- despite all this we have to remember that it comes down to people actually going to the polls and voting for Obama.
OK. No problem. Obama's ground game, get-out-the-vote organization is going to swamp McCain's. He doesn't have the organization, the volunteers, or the money that Obama does. In addition, 25% of the registered voters already have voted, and Obama has already banked a sizeable majority of those votes.
McCain's campaign manager Davis was on TV this morning; but the best spin he could make is that McCain will win all the tossup states plus PA, that the polls are all wrong, and that the tide is turning toward McCain. But the evidence just isn't there.
It does not suggest an upset in the making when, in the last week, Arizona has been moved into the tossup category, forcing McCain to go home to campaign and use robocalls in his own state, and the leading newspaper in Tucson, the second largest city, has just endorsed Obama.
But my biggest reassurance came watching This Week With George Stephanopolis. Guests were George Will, Mark Halperin, Matthew Dowd, and Donna Brazille. They all agreed that at this late date, the few undecideds in the polls typically either don't vote or else split about even. That's bad news for McCain, because he would need them to break decisively for him.
Predictions of the electoral vote count ranged from 338 to 378 by the panelists. And who was the high 378? George Will, the sober, conservative, cautious one of the lot. What makes those numbers so impressive is that even the lowest prediction, Matthew Dowd's 338, is still 68 more votes than Obama needs to win. That's a whole bunch of the tossup states he doesn't have to win, and it could happen -- and probably will.
Will the fat lady please hurry up and sing? It's hard to keep up an appearance of caution and calm.
Ralph
OK. No problem. Obama's ground game, get-out-the-vote organization is going to swamp McCain's. He doesn't have the organization, the volunteers, or the money that Obama does. In addition, 25% of the registered voters already have voted, and Obama has already banked a sizeable majority of those votes.
McCain's campaign manager Davis was on TV this morning; but the best spin he could make is that McCain will win all the tossup states plus PA, that the polls are all wrong, and that the tide is turning toward McCain. But the evidence just isn't there.
It does not suggest an upset in the making when, in the last week, Arizona has been moved into the tossup category, forcing McCain to go home to campaign and use robocalls in his own state, and the leading newspaper in Tucson, the second largest city, has just endorsed Obama.
But my biggest reassurance came watching This Week With George Stephanopolis. Guests were George Will, Mark Halperin, Matthew Dowd, and Donna Brazille. They all agreed that at this late date, the few undecideds in the polls typically either don't vote or else split about even. That's bad news for McCain, because he would need them to break decisively for him.
Predictions of the electoral vote count ranged from 338 to 378 by the panelists. And who was the high 378? George Will, the sober, conservative, cautious one of the lot. What makes those numbers so impressive is that even the lowest prediction, Matthew Dowd's 338, is still 68 more votes than Obama needs to win. That's a whole bunch of the tossup states he doesn't have to win, and it could happen -- and probably will.
Will the fat lady please hurry up and sing? It's hard to keep up an appearance of caution and calm.
Ralph
What We Could Have Bought Instead of the Iraq War
Obama was right on the Iraq War, and no matter how hard Palin(who held a rally in Florida yesterday where not one sign mentioned McCain's name) talks about 'victory' or 'winning' we would have been better off if we hadn't ever embarked on that path.
On a simple level, Obama's proposal to provide a $4,000 tax credit for college students, in return for the students performing 100 hours of community service, will probably not come to pass because it would cost $10 billion - the same amount of money we are spending each month in Iraq.
But let's look at the larger picture. Everyone, right and left, admits the total cost of the war will reach 1 trillion dollars. That's $1,000,000,000,000. What could we have paid for with that money instead of the Iraq War?
It could have paid for every high school student in the US to have a free college education.
It could have paid for off every penny of credit card debt in the US.
It could have doubled the number of policemen in the country - for 32 years.
It could have purchased 16.6 million homes, housing 43 million Americans.
It could have literally paved the entire US highway system with 23.5 karat gold leaf.
It could have produced enough ethanol, solar, and other alternative energies to eliminate our dependence on foreign oil.
Or, we could have paid every single man, woman, and child in Iraq $36,000 not to fight us. And as the Bush administration points out, that's what they're doing now, and it's effective.
http://www.whatwecouldhavedonewiththemoney.com/
When I balance those things out, it's hard to make a case for this being a wise use of our money.
On a simple level, Obama's proposal to provide a $4,000 tax credit for college students, in return for the students performing 100 hours of community service, will probably not come to pass because it would cost $10 billion - the same amount of money we are spending each month in Iraq.
But let's look at the larger picture. Everyone, right and left, admits the total cost of the war will reach 1 trillion dollars. That's $1,000,000,000,000. What could we have paid for with that money instead of the Iraq War?
It could have paid for every high school student in the US to have a free college education.
It could have paid for off every penny of credit card debt in the US.
It could have doubled the number of policemen in the country - for 32 years.
It could have purchased 16.6 million homes, housing 43 million Americans.
It could have literally paved the entire US highway system with 23.5 karat gold leaf.
It could have produced enough ethanol, solar, and other alternative energies to eliminate our dependence on foreign oil.
Or, we could have paid every single man, woman, and child in Iraq $36,000 not to fight us. And as the Bush administration points out, that's what they're doing now, and it's effective.
http://www.whatwecouldhavedonewiththemoney.com/
When I balance those things out, it's hard to make a case for this being a wise use of our money.
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