Sunday, September 21, 2008

The Bailout: Good Idea?

In no way am I an economics expert, and it seems that a quick consensus formed among the economic elite that the crisis is enormous and urgent and that Treasury Secretary Paulson's plan is a good idea -- perhaps with some modifications by the Democrats to make it more of a "Main Street, not just Wall Street" bailout.

But I have some serious questions, mostly prompted by my friend Mickie Nardo in his blog at www.1boringoldman.com and by Glenn Greenwald's analysis at www.salon.com/opinion/greenwald.

Paulson's plan calls for three things: (1) The Treasury Secretary is authorized to buy up to $700 billion dollars worth of mortgage assets at a price determined by him; (2) It raises the national debt ceiling to $11.3 trillion to accommodate this debt; and (3) The Secretary's decisions are not reviewable by any court or administrative agency.

I understand that the situation is dire and that something must be done to prevent the collapse of our whole economic system. But what we essentially have is what Glenn Greenwald calls "high-reward/no-risk capitalism," where they reap millions while their schemes pay off and then shift the loss to the taxpayers when the schemes collapse.

So here are my worrisome questions:

(1) Please tell us how this is going to solve the problem beyond stabilizing the system in crisis. Are we doing anything other than bailing out the investors at the expense of taxpayers? Unless it's in the fine print, there is nothing in this authorization to put back into place regulations that will prevent something similar from happening again, or to hold anyone accountable for preventing it.

(2) What is this huge increase in the national debt, itself, going to do to our economy? Aren't we just once again borrowing more money, which essentially is what got us into this mess: too many people borrowing what they can't afford, too much government spending (including a little war we seem to be forgetting) paid for with borrowed funds; too little accountability?

(3) What about the total free hand, without oversight or review, placed in the hands of one government official? This sounds an awful lot like the blank check Congress gave Bush to go to war.

What I fear is that once again we are being stampeded by a crisis to take action we will later regret. In Viet Nam, the fear was a domino fall of that part of the world to Communism, and a phoney Gulf of Tonkin bombing was used to stoke the fear and push the vote.

We went into Iraq because of fear of Islamic terrorists taking over the world, and manufactured 'evidence' of phoney WMD was used to manipulate public opinion and cow Congress into giving GWBush a blank check.

Now we're being asked to give the Treasury Secretary a blank check to prevent the collapse of the backbone of our economic system. Shouldn't we at least have a debate in Congress about this before we sign that blank check?

And, as my friend Mickie Nardo points out: "I smell a rat! A month away from the election, we have a crisis over something that’s been brewing for years, and we’re supposed to do something before Bush leaves Office? with no Oversight? that costs a trillion dollars? that benefits banks and stock brokers but not "the people?" Looks to me like they've realized that Johnny Mack is probably going down and they've decided to throw him to the wind and bail out their buddies while they still can . . ." (www.1boringoldman.com)

That is a chilling thought.

Ralph

6 comments:

Ralph said...

Since writing this, I've watch Paulson and Chris Dodd, chair of Senate Banking Committee discuss this.
They both say that it is necessary to get this bill passed, simply and cleanly, and fast -- in order to prevent disaster. Concerns about long term debt and about the little people, are subsumed under the mantra that nothing could be worse than for our financial system to collapse or become frozen.
What they suggest is this will stabilize the situation, and then they'll fix what led it to be broken.
I don't see why they couldn't at least quickly write into this bill some oversight accountability instead of a blank check with no questions asked.
As one of the discussants pointed out, at the point of greatest risk you also have the most leverage to get something done about the problem.

Ralph said...

On the same ABC "This Week" program, George Will, conservative pundit, had this to say about John McCain's behavior this week:
"The question is, who in this crisis looked more presidential, calm and un-flustered? It wasn't John McCain. . . . John McCain showed his personality this week and made some of us fearful."
Now George Will has joined the Wall Street Journal in saying McCain was unpresidential. These are sober, conservative voices saying this about the Republican candidate!!! Are people listening?

Ralph said...

As the day goes on, there is a growing protest from some very smart folks that Paulson is rushing this through, using panic to make a sweetheart deal for the financial companies.
Essentially, the taxpayers buy the bad assets, let the companies get back to making profits. The assets may later be sold, conceivably at a profit; but maybe not. The rub seems to be what kind of value the government can get back.
Why he is insisting on complete authority without oversight is not clear, but the red flag flapping from the end of it is crystal clear to me.

Ralph said...

I'm having a nice conversation here with myself. But it's been a busy day on the financial crisis.
Now it seems that foreign banks that hold American mortgages have lobbied successfully to be included in the bailout plan.
One of the biggest is UBS. And guess who is Vice President of the American division and its chief lobbyist? Phil Gramm, McCain's chief financial adviser and possibly his Secretary of Treasury if he is elected.
No wonder Paulson wants to rush this through before anyone looks to closely at the fine print.
(reported by Josh Marshall on TalkPointsMemo)

Anonymous said...

from what I'm seeing, on huffingtonpost and realclearpolitics, as well as Obama's speech today in Charlotte, there is a growing tendency among people like Pelosi and Obama in particular to NOT give Bush/Paulson a blank check, and to demand transparency, etc. If Bush/Paulson don't get what they want right now, what happens? What happens if the system is allowed to fail? I know this is unthinkable, but it might not be unavoidable, particularly if Congress drags its feet, or demands things the administration is unwilling to give. The next week, beginning tomorrow, should be interesting.

Ralph said...

I agree that it seems something needs to happen fast. But for once I'd like to see the Democrats realize that they have the bargaining chips. Bush has always said: if you don't allocate the money, soldiers will die. Why don't they say back to him: if you don't sign the bill we pass, soldiers will die.
And now, let them be forced to accept some regulation, some oversight, and some help to home owners -- not just demand the money and give nothing.
As it stands now, it's heads we win, tails you lose. Privatize profits, nationalize losses.