National insanity

We have moved beyond the "silly season" and into national insanity. The economy is almost in freefall and Greenspan says it's going to get worse; Gen. Petraeus, ending his tour of command in Iraq, sounds somber about the fragility of the reduction in violence; more and more people lack health insurance; Bush has done damage to our government that will take more than one presidential term to repair; etc. etc.

And we are preoccupied with lipstick on pigs, charges of sexism over trivial remarks, blatant lies in ads, and nearly half the population just doesn't care. I stay near the boiling point of rage, but it's impotent rage. I find myself seriously thinking that the Republicans are going to do it again -- run a campaign that has nothing whatsoever to do with issues or substance, and everything to do with what's the best strategy for winning, no matter whether it requires outright lying, turning reality upside down, making up smears on your opponent, stealing the vote. They're gearing up for that, planning on wholesale challenges at the polls of people whose homes have been foreclosed and now have different addresses, as well as those people who don't respond to mailings that have to be returned confirming their address (caging).

There is some good news, and I grasp at straws, like the excellent articles in the Times and the WaPost today, both critically examining Palin's record as mayor and governor. Greenspan says McCain's economic plan won't work; borrowing money to cut taxes is never a good idea. And major news organizations are saying McCain's ads have gone too far, and they're beginning to report fact checking. Even Karl Rove has said they've gone too far (he's right and his reasons are sound, but beware of Rove 'bearing gifts.' He can't be up to any good).

In a reality-based world, this should all be good news. But will it actually have any effect on voters? Perhaps, with a small segment of the undecided vote; but as close as it is now, that might be enough.

So I zoom up and down the rollercoaster. And in the end I fall back on three things: (1) my belief that the Palin effect has peaked and some sense of reality will return to some of the pack; (2) the factors which usually are most decisive in elections are still in Obama's favor (the economy, the popularity (or lack) of the president, and the desire to change the direction of government; and (3) Obama gets knocked off kilter by events like Jeremiah Wright and Sarah Palin, but he usually finds his way again. It's still the smartest presidential campaign in modern history. I'm counting on them to rebound from this and find the right strategy.

But, to be honest, friends, I don't have a good track record. In 1972 I stayed up half the night, hoping against hope that McGovern could still pull out a victory. Same with Mondale and Dukakis, and Gore (that was more like weeks), and Kerry. So I don't have a lot of confidence in my optimism, and I have even less confidence in the wisdom of the American voters.

It's dizzying to swing from cautious optimism to gloom, all in the space of writing this post. But I simply cannot tune out, even for a day.

Ralph