I haven't yet found the right words to say what I feel about this historic election of Barak Obama, so I'll put that off a bit longer.
Just a few more words about polls. Now that North Carolina is officially called for Obama (thanks, Richard; you did good), it brings his electoral count to 364. Now, for all I've made of the great polling analysis outfits, RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight, there is one other measure of how the campaigns are going that is very simple.
It's called InTrade, and it's based on the idea that you get more accurate predictions if people "vote" with their pocket books. People actually place bets on who they think will win. Not who they want to win, but who they're willing to bet money on. Just like at the race track.
There are several of them, but InTrade does it state by state. Then they add up the electoral votes of the candidates by who is leading in each state betting pool.
The Obama/McCain split has been pretty consistent, with a few deviations from time to time, since last summer when I began following it.
And guess what that magic number for Obama has been for most of the past 3 months: 364
So, unless Missour's final count turns out to go for Obama, which looks unlikely, InTrade would have to take the prize for absolute accuracy. If it goes for Obama, then he would have 375, just 3 short of the 378 that George Will predicted and that everyone thought was way too high.
Ralph
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2 comments:
"I haven't yet found the right words to say what I feel about this historic election of Barak Obama, so I'll put that off a bit longer."
You're way ahead of me. You haven't found the words. I haven't even found the feeling - unless disbelief is a feeling. My disbelief isn't that Obama got elected. It's just hard to believe that Bush, Cheney, and their machine is gone, or even about to be gone. It reminds me of what amputees call "phantom pain" or the dreams of soldiers in which they re-experience their wartime terrors. My mind won't quite make a leap into the present. I guess it doesn't feel safe yet...
Perfect analogies, Mickey. It's going to take some time for the "phantom limb" of Bush/Cheney/Rove to dissipate. The other metaphor that this brought to mind, but can't quite feel yet, is the gleeful dancing at the realization that "the wicked witch is dead."
It's hard to really believe that yet, especailly when they're still around and are madly trashing as many EPA regulations and other ways to reward their friends as possible.
But Jan. 20th will come !!!
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