Investigative reporting by the Associated Press has revealed serious questions about Governor Sarah Palin's vaunted 1,715 mile pipeline to bring natural gas from Alaska to the lower 48 states. She has touted this as her signature accomplishment, using it to claim expertise on energy independence.
Not so, it now seems. There is real question that the TransCanada Corp. that won the contract will ever be able to get it built, due to financing and regulatory difficulties, despite what begins to seem like a sweetheart deal. Rather than making the bidding attractive to the global energy giants that actually own the rights to the gas, as even Dick Cheney had advised her, Palin created a process that favored a few local pipeline companies. In the end, five bids were submitted. Four were ruled out as not meeting the bidding requirements, leaving TransCanada Corporation as the only viable bidder.
In addition, AP raises questions about improper, insider links with this company. The leader of Palin's project team had worked previously for a subsidiary of TransCanada, a connection that would have violated Palin's own regulatory ethical guidelines. A former TransCanada executive served as an outside consultant to advise on the adequacy of their plan. And Palin herself had a phone conversation a few months prior to the deadline with both the President and CEO of TransCanada, reportedly "to clarify the bidding process."
Even more problematic are questions of whether TransCanada can get financing to build the project, even with the $500 million supplement quaranteed by the Alaska government. "Most definitely TransCanada got a sweetheart deal this time," said Republican Sen. Bert Stedman, who voted against the TransCanada license. "Where else could you get a $500 million reimbursement when you don't even have the financing to build the pipeline?"
This is the maverick that will transform the way Washington does business??
Ralph
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Odds and ends
Nov. 4 is just 10 days away. Still time for disaster to strike or for the election to be stolen by intimidation of voters or dirty tricks in the machines. But as each day brings us closer to the actual election without a game-changing event, these seem less likely to be decisive.
Here are some miscellaneous items that bolster my hope for a transforming victory for Obama and the politics of hope and change.
1. Charles Fried, Ronald Reagan's Solicitor General, Harvard Law professor, and respected conservative thinker, has asked that his name be removed from several McCain campaign-related committees on which he serves. Although he expressed enthusiastic support for McCain last January, he now says that he has already voted for Obama-Biden by absentee ballot. In his letter to the General Counsel to the McCain-Palin campaign, he said that chief among the reasons for his decision "is the choice of Sarah Palin at a time of deep national crisis."
2. Fried joins other prominent Republicans endorsing Obama, the latest being former Governor of Massachusetts William Weld.
3. Conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer is not joining. In a strong rebuke to these "ship-jumpers," he wrote, "I shall have no part of this motley crew. I will go down with the McCain ship. I'd rather lose an election than lose my bearings."
Note: "I will go down with the McCain ship."
4. Obama's support among white voters is now the highest of any Democratic candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976. At 44%, he evens tops Bill Clinton's 43% in 1996. Admit it, Hillary, Yes He Can. In this New York Times/CBS poll, he leads among all voters 52-37%, among men 52-39%, women 52-36%. He is ahead in all age groupings, as well as in voters with incomes both above $50,000 and below that level. The only demographic group where McCain is significantly ahead has to do with religion. McCain leads among white protestants and especially white evangelicals, while Obama leads among Catholics.
5. Several news sources are reporting on the tension between McCain and Palin, especially evident in their joint ABC interview. She is increasingly speaking out and going her own way in her rally speeches. It's said that she is no longer listening to her "handlers," and that she's hardly speaking to those travelling with her from the campaign. I'm guessing that the reality of defeat is sinking in, and she's beginning to look to her political future. Alas, that may not be so shiney. A poll shows that she is now only 3rd choice among Republicans for 2012. At 20% she is trailing both Romney at 35% and Huckabee at 26%.
6. Leaks from the campaign speak about the infighting that is going on over the blame game. A lot of this seems related to the choice of Palin, who now seems to be a net drain on the McCain ticket as more people view her unfavorably than favorably. Just as McCain's picking her took "experience" and "putting country first" off the table, now Shoppergate seems to be destroying the "hockey mom" image. Even some insiders are speaking of the campaign in the past tense.
7. In contrast, as Obama's polls continue to creep up toward solid double digits, attention is turning to speculating about an Obama chief of staff and cabinet positions.
8. And my final hopeful indicator is the formidable ground game, get-out-the-vote organization that Obama has organized. Just here in Georgia, there are over 3000 volunteers working on GOTV, and because the race is getting close here they're sending in 100 more volunteers from out of state.
Ralph
Here are some miscellaneous items that bolster my hope for a transforming victory for Obama and the politics of hope and change.
1. Charles Fried, Ronald Reagan's Solicitor General, Harvard Law professor, and respected conservative thinker, has asked that his name be removed from several McCain campaign-related committees on which he serves. Although he expressed enthusiastic support for McCain last January, he now says that he has already voted for Obama-Biden by absentee ballot. In his letter to the General Counsel to the McCain-Palin campaign, he said that chief among the reasons for his decision "is the choice of Sarah Palin at a time of deep national crisis."
2. Fried joins other prominent Republicans endorsing Obama, the latest being former Governor of Massachusetts William Weld.
3. Conservative columnist Charles Krauthammer is not joining. In a strong rebuke to these "ship-jumpers," he wrote, "I shall have no part of this motley crew. I will go down with the McCain ship. I'd rather lose an election than lose my bearings."
Note: "I will go down with the McCain ship."
4. Obama's support among white voters is now the highest of any Democratic candidate since Jimmy Carter in 1976. At 44%, he evens tops Bill Clinton's 43% in 1996. Admit it, Hillary, Yes He Can. In this New York Times/CBS poll, he leads among all voters 52-37%, among men 52-39%, women 52-36%. He is ahead in all age groupings, as well as in voters with incomes both above $50,000 and below that level. The only demographic group where McCain is significantly ahead has to do with religion. McCain leads among white protestants and especially white evangelicals, while Obama leads among Catholics.
5. Several news sources are reporting on the tension between McCain and Palin, especially evident in their joint ABC interview. She is increasingly speaking out and going her own way in her rally speeches. It's said that she is no longer listening to her "handlers," and that she's hardly speaking to those travelling with her from the campaign. I'm guessing that the reality of defeat is sinking in, and she's beginning to look to her political future. Alas, that may not be so shiney. A poll shows that she is now only 3rd choice among Republicans for 2012. At 20% she is trailing both Romney at 35% and Huckabee at 26%.
6. Leaks from the campaign speak about the infighting that is going on over the blame game. A lot of this seems related to the choice of Palin, who now seems to be a net drain on the McCain ticket as more people view her unfavorably than favorably. Just as McCain's picking her took "experience" and "putting country first" off the table, now Shoppergate seems to be destroying the "hockey mom" image. Even some insiders are speaking of the campaign in the past tense.
7. In contrast, as Obama's polls continue to creep up toward solid double digits, attention is turning to speculating about an Obama chief of staff and cabinet positions.
8. And my final hopeful indicator is the formidable ground game, get-out-the-vote organization that Obama has organized. Just here in Georgia, there are over 3000 volunteers working on GOTV, and because the race is getting close here they're sending in 100 more volunteers from out of state.
Ralph
Early Voting Comfortable for African Americans?
The early voting trends are pretty astounding in some states, NC and Georgia in particular.
Although Republicans usually vote early more than Democrats, that has been reversed this election.
In NC, Democrats have nearly a 2 - 1 edge in the first 1 million votes cast. African Americans, who make us 21% of the electorate, account for 28% of those who voted early in NC. In Georgia, 35% of the nearly 1 million early votes cast have been by African Americans, although in last election they made up only 25% of the total.
Early voting is particularly attractive, I believe, to poor and working class people because it gives them flexibility. It's attractive to African-Americans because they don't have to go to the 'official' voting place, where they are questioned and harassed, but can go to community centers in their neighborhoods, where they are helped by friends.
Although Republicans usually vote early more than Democrats, that has been reversed this election.
In NC, Democrats have nearly a 2 - 1 edge in the first 1 million votes cast. African Americans, who make us 21% of the electorate, account for 28% of those who voted early in NC. In Georgia, 35% of the nearly 1 million early votes cast have been by African Americans, although in last election they made up only 25% of the total.
Early voting is particularly attractive, I believe, to poor and working class people because it gives them flexibility. It's attractive to African-Americans because they don't have to go to the 'official' voting place, where they are questioned and harassed, but can go to community centers in their neighborhoods, where they are helped by friends.
Friday, October 24, 2008
The sky Could fall . . . but probably won't
Richard and I sort of naturally fall into the good cop/bad cop -- or optimist/pessimist -- dynamic. He keeps us grounded and worried, I cheerlead for what's possible, maybe probable, and somewhat cautiously actually believe will happen.
To repeat what I wrote in a comment to his post, I think that the voters he's worried about are already reflected in the polls, explaining why Obama is not leading by at least 20% -- which he probably would if he were white and running in the midst of the worst economic crisis of our generation, in the middle of a war opposed by 60+%, against an incumbant party in deep disarray, with a discredited incumbant president, and with a jaw-dropping 85% of Americans who say the country is heading in the wrong direction.
In addition, McCain's campaign has been a disaster of incoherence, erratic shifts, and gaffes. His Karl Rove type negativity is backfiring (sure it stirs the base, but he's got those votes anyway), and his choice of Palin has excited many but turned off even more. He tries to run away from Bush (but it's hard to do when he's on tape as bragging that he supported him 90% of the time). And that's also a double-edge sword. The lower his support drops, the more his Bush-bashing is also bashing his base who still support Bush. They have nowhere else to go, but they might stay home.
Now in the home stretch, it's probably too late to introduce anything new; only a national disaster or a real, as opposed to a fake, Obama scandal would have much effect. At this date, it comes down to money for final TV ads and the get-out-the-vote (GOTV) ground plan -- and Obama has him way over-matched in both.
One other factor: of course, polls can change, but the trend is still toward Obama just 11 days before the election. The two strange ones that got some notice this week with Obama leading by only 1% have been explained by Nate Silver. One of them wildly oversampled evangelical voters and the other extremely distorted the 18-24 age voters. It had them going for McCain 74-22. Now, with all other polls showing that age group going for Obama by margins of 25-35 points, this is just not believable. Nate calculated the statistical odds of that 74/22 for McCain being a true reflection as 55 billion to 1.
Even with those two 1% polls averaged in, however, this weeks tracking polls average out at 7.4% lead for Obama, with 5 of the 15 polls giving him a double digit lead. And the statewide electoral votes tell an even bigger story. He's now leading in Indiana, and the latest poll in Georgia has Obama leading by 1% -- within margin of error, of course, but it's the trend. GA wasn't even considered a battleground state until about a week ago.
But don't worry, Richard. I do still worry. About surprises. About stealing elections in key, close states. And about Obama's safety.
Ralph
To repeat what I wrote in a comment to his post, I think that the voters he's worried about are already reflected in the polls, explaining why Obama is not leading by at least 20% -- which he probably would if he were white and running in the midst of the worst economic crisis of our generation, in the middle of a war opposed by 60+%, against an incumbant party in deep disarray, with a discredited incumbant president, and with a jaw-dropping 85% of Americans who say the country is heading in the wrong direction.
In addition, McCain's campaign has been a disaster of incoherence, erratic shifts, and gaffes. His Karl Rove type negativity is backfiring (sure it stirs the base, but he's got those votes anyway), and his choice of Palin has excited many but turned off even more. He tries to run away from Bush (but it's hard to do when he's on tape as bragging that he supported him 90% of the time). And that's also a double-edge sword. The lower his support drops, the more his Bush-bashing is also bashing his base who still support Bush. They have nowhere else to go, but they might stay home.
Now in the home stretch, it's probably too late to introduce anything new; only a national disaster or a real, as opposed to a fake, Obama scandal would have much effect. At this date, it comes down to money for final TV ads and the get-out-the-vote (GOTV) ground plan -- and Obama has him way over-matched in both.
One other factor: of course, polls can change, but the trend is still toward Obama just 11 days before the election. The two strange ones that got some notice this week with Obama leading by only 1% have been explained by Nate Silver. One of them wildly oversampled evangelical voters and the other extremely distorted the 18-24 age voters. It had them going for McCain 74-22. Now, with all other polls showing that age group going for Obama by margins of 25-35 points, this is just not believable. Nate calculated the statistical odds of that 74/22 for McCain being a true reflection as 55 billion to 1.
Even with those two 1% polls averaged in, however, this weeks tracking polls average out at 7.4% lead for Obama, with 5 of the 15 polls giving him a double digit lead. And the statewide electoral votes tell an even bigger story. He's now leading in Indiana, and the latest poll in Georgia has Obama leading by 1% -- within margin of error, of course, but it's the trend. GA wasn't even considered a battleground state until about a week ago.
But don't worry, Richard. I do still worry. About surprises. About stealing elections in key, close states. And about Obama's safety.
Ralph
Let Me Play Chicken Little - Obama is Falling?
Although everything points to an Obama landslide, there are some things giving me pause.
Recently McCain signs have been sprouting up in North Carolina like mushrooms - they're all over the place.
The statewide radio programs, even the moderate ones, are full of people worried about Obama's "terrorist buddies"(note the plural). I have heard an unending stream of outrage, locally and on national stations, about Obama's 'spread the wealth' comment; many people can't see past the notion of taxes. One radio dj tried to talk to a man about, So, you'll really give up plans to grow your business because of an increased 3% in your tax rate? The caller insisted he would, and refused to listen to any reasoned argument about the overall economic program offered by Obama and how that would help him. All he could see/hear was that his taxes were going up - to help people who were too lazy to work. It's apparent this man is being reached by the McCain ad referencing 'welfare'.
A man on a call in show on C-span said he thought people, his friends, were going to go into the booth and vote for McCain out of fear because McCain and Palin have sown enough uncertainty about Obama's character that, in unsettled times, they'll go for the known quantity and vote for McCain out of fear of the unknown.
On another show a man said he was voting McCain because of abortion and gay marriage. "It doesn't matter if the economy is a mess. You need to get yourself right with God first," he explained, "then the rest will fall into line."
In 2004 Bush won Ohio because he pulled double digit votes from the conservative African-American community who supported him primarily because of his stand against gay marriage - so let's not underestimate the level of prejudice on that issue.
A poll referenced on NPR showed that , when asked if they'd prefer a Democratic president who could work with a Democratic Congress to get things done, or a Republican president who could function as a check to a Democratic congress, 20% more people said they'd prefer a Republican. 20% more people preferred gridlock, to the real possibility of change.
This reminded me of many of the women I worked with who were abused. Many people are afraid of change. When it comes right down to it, they'd rather stick with the known abuser, than risk giving someone new a chance. McCain is the' known abuser'.
I think many of the undecided voters are planning to vote for McCain but don't want to admit it publicly, because they know in their hearts it's a stupid decision. I was on a plane flying to Greece the night Ronald Reagan was elected. When they announced the result literally the entire plane erupted in cheers. People stood up in their seats.
Then 80% of the people, who'd just been cheering sat down and began to murmur, "But I didn't vote for him."
I think the same thing will happen with McCain.
The difference this time, I hope, is that Obama, coming out of a community organizer background, can actually mobilize enough supporters to get out hsi vote to insure a victory.
But I wouldn't be surprised if the election turned out much closer than people anticipate. And in a close election, anything can happen.
Recently McCain signs have been sprouting up in North Carolina like mushrooms - they're all over the place.
The statewide radio programs, even the moderate ones, are full of people worried about Obama's "terrorist buddies"(note the plural). I have heard an unending stream of outrage, locally and on national stations, about Obama's 'spread the wealth' comment; many people can't see past the notion of taxes. One radio dj tried to talk to a man about, So, you'll really give up plans to grow your business because of an increased 3% in your tax rate? The caller insisted he would, and refused to listen to any reasoned argument about the overall economic program offered by Obama and how that would help him. All he could see/hear was that his taxes were going up - to help people who were too lazy to work. It's apparent this man is being reached by the McCain ad referencing 'welfare'.
A man on a call in show on C-span said he thought people, his friends, were going to go into the booth and vote for McCain out of fear because McCain and Palin have sown enough uncertainty about Obama's character that, in unsettled times, they'll go for the known quantity and vote for McCain out of fear of the unknown.
On another show a man said he was voting McCain because of abortion and gay marriage. "It doesn't matter if the economy is a mess. You need to get yourself right with God first," he explained, "then the rest will fall into line."
In 2004 Bush won Ohio because he pulled double digit votes from the conservative African-American community who supported him primarily because of his stand against gay marriage - so let's not underestimate the level of prejudice on that issue.
A poll referenced on NPR showed that , when asked if they'd prefer a Democratic president who could work with a Democratic Congress to get things done, or a Republican president who could function as a check to a Democratic congress, 20% more people said they'd prefer a Republican. 20% more people preferred gridlock, to the real possibility of change.
This reminded me of many of the women I worked with who were abused. Many people are afraid of change. When it comes right down to it, they'd rather stick with the known abuser, than risk giving someone new a chance. McCain is the' known abuser'.
I think many of the undecided voters are planning to vote for McCain but don't want to admit it publicly, because they know in their hearts it's a stupid decision. I was on a plane flying to Greece the night Ronald Reagan was elected. When they announced the result literally the entire plane erupted in cheers. People stood up in their seats.
Then 80% of the people, who'd just been cheering sat down and began to murmur, "But I didn't vote for him."
I think the same thing will happen with McCain.
The difference this time, I hope, is that Obama, coming out of a community organizer background, can actually mobilize enough supporters to get out hsi vote to insure a victory.
But I wouldn't be surprised if the election turned out much closer than people anticipate. And in a close election, anything can happen.
Thursday, October 23, 2008
McCain conceding defeat?
The McCain campaign is planning an election night party in a hotel ballroom, but McCain will not be speaking there. Instead, he plans to address a small group of supporters and select reporters on the hotel lawn, and it will be piped into the ballroom.
Aides said the arrangement was the result of space limitations and that McCain might drop by the election watch party at some other point. What? they couldn't find a bigger place?
That sounds to me like someone who's anticipating defeat.
Ralph
Barry Goldwater for Obama
Let's see, early on we had Susan Eisenhower, Ike's granddaughter, endorsing Obama. Over the weekend, Colin Powell and Ken Adelman, both of whom served in Republican administrations at high levels, came out for him. Add in several former Republican Congressmen and conservative pundits Christopher Brinkley, Francis Fukuyama, and Andrew Sullivan (with hints from David Brooks).
Now Barry Goldwater's granddaughter has written a piece saying that she and her siblings and cousins are supporting Obama.
Now Barry Goldwater's granddaughter has written a piece saying that she and her siblings and cousins are supporting Obama.
We believe strongly in what our grandfather stood for: honesty, integrity, and personal freedom, free from political maneuvering and fear tactics. . . . Our generation of Goldwaters expects government to provide for constitutional protections. We reject the constant intrusion into our personal lives, along with other crucial policy issues of the McCain/Palin ticket.
My grandfather (Paka) would never suggest denying a woman's right to choose. My grandmother co-founded Planned Parenthood in Arizona in the 1930's, a cause my grandfather supported. I'm not sure about how he would feel about marriage rights based on same-sex orientation. I think he would feel that love and respect for ones privacy is what matters most and not the intolerance and poor judgment displayed by McCain over the years. [Note from Ralph: Before he died, Goldwater expressed his love and support for his gay grandson and took a stand for gay rights, though marriage itself was not on the agenda at the time.]
. . . the Republican brand has been tarnished in a shameless effort to gain votes and appeal to the lowest emotion, fear. Nothing about McCain, except for maybe a uniform, compares to the same ideology of what Goldwater stood for as a politician. . .
Nothing about the Republican ticket offers the hope America needs to regain it's standing in the world, that's why we're going to support Barack Obama. I think that Obama has shown his ability and integrity. After the last eight years, there's a lot of clean up do. Roll up your sleeves, Senators Obama and Biden, and we Goldwaters will roll ours up with you.I well remember Barry Goldwater's race against Lyndon Johnson in 1964. "Mr. Conservative," as he was called, was the arch-enemy of the liberal-progressive agenda. But his granddaughter is absolutely right. He would have denounced the Republican tactics and John McCain's campaign in a minute. As much as we disagreed with him on issues, he would be a breath of fresh air in today's fetid miasma that Karl Rove and his acolytes have wrought; and he would not stoop to rescue John McCain from the cesspool in which his bartered soul is languishing in defeat.
Ralph
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