Let Me Play Chicken Little - Obama is Falling?

Although everything points to an Obama landslide, there are some things giving me pause.

Recently McCain signs have been sprouting up in North Carolina like mushrooms - they're all over the place.

The statewide radio programs, even the moderate ones, are full of people worried about Obama's "terrorist buddies"(note the plural). I have heard an unending stream of outrage, locally and on national stations, about Obama's 'spread the wealth' comment; many people can't see past the notion of taxes. One radio dj tried to talk to a man about, So, you'll really give up plans to grow your business because of an increased 3% in your tax rate? The caller insisted he would, and refused to listen to any reasoned argument about the overall economic program offered by Obama and how that would help him. All he could see/hear was that his taxes were going up - to help people who were too lazy to work. It's apparent this man is being reached by the McCain ad referencing 'welfare'.

A man on a call in show on C-span said he thought people, his friends, were going to go into the booth and vote for McCain out of fear because McCain and Palin have sown enough uncertainty about Obama's character that, in unsettled times, they'll go for the known quantity and vote for McCain out of fear of the unknown.

On another show a man said he was voting McCain because of abortion and gay marriage. "It doesn't matter if the economy is a mess. You need to get yourself right with God first," he explained, "then the rest will fall into line."

In 2004 Bush won Ohio because he pulled double digit votes from the conservative African-American community who supported him primarily because of his stand against gay marriage - so let's not underestimate the level of prejudice on that issue.

A poll referenced on NPR showed that , when asked if they'd prefer a Democratic president who could work with a Democratic Congress to get things done, or a Republican president who could function as a check to a Democratic congress, 20% more people said they'd prefer a Republican. 20% more people preferred gridlock, to the real possibility of change.

This reminded me of many of the women I worked with who were abused. Many people are afraid of change. When it comes right down to it, they'd rather stick with the known abuser, than risk giving someone new a chance. McCain is the' known abuser'.

I think many of the undecided voters are planning to vote for McCain but don't want to admit it publicly, because they know in their hearts it's a stupid decision. I was on a plane flying to Greece the night Ronald Reagan was elected. When they announced the result literally the entire plane erupted in cheers. People stood up in their seats.

Then 80% of the people, who'd just been cheering sat down and began to murmur, "But I didn't vote for him."

I think the same thing will happen with McCain.

The difference this time, I hope, is that Obama, coming out of a community organizer background, can actually mobilize enough supporters to get out hsi vote to insure a victory.

But I wouldn't be surprised if the election turned out much closer than people anticipate. And in a close election, anything can happen.