The "Obama Effect"

It's time to stop worrying about "The Bradley Effect," where white people, for fear of being thought racist, tell pollsters they plan to vote for the black candidate, but then vote for the white candidate, resulting in suprise election loss by the black candidate.

First, I think the racist effect is already evident in polls being much closer than would be expected, given all the dimensions of this contest: a horrible economy going into recession, a vastly unpopular incumbant president of the opposite party, and a vastly unpopular war grossly mishandled by the incumbant.

Now suppose Obama were white -- and otherwise had his same life story and his same skills and qualifications and was pitted against John McCain and Sarah Palin. His poll numbers would be off the charts. I'm suggesting that we're already seeing the effect of racism in this race. And it must be large, because it is also partially offset by the increased black vote for him.

Second, I think there is going to be a "reverse Bradley effect," or perhaps we should call it "The Obama Effect." I predict that there will be an unsuspected number of Republicans who will tell pollsters that they're voting for McCain, but who -- once inside the voting booth -- will vote for Obama.

Many, many moderate (and not so moderate) Republicans agree with Colin Powell's reasons for supporting Obama. Take Ken Adelman, a life long conservative Republican who campaigned for Barry Goldwater, worked for Nixon and Rumsfield, was a friend of Dick Cheney and Paul Wolfowitz, and who still considers himself a bona-fide hawk and others call a neo-con.

He has annouced that, much to his own amazement, he is going to vote for Obama, even though he agrees with McCain on most of the issues -- and his reasons are based on considering the "temperament and judgment" of both candidates. Very similar to what Powell reasoned.

If these two high profile people have said it openly, how many more Republicans who have been tepidly supporting McCain will privately switch their votes?

Let's hope millions do. And then we can talk about the Obama Effect instead of the Bradley Effect. But the tightening of poll numbers still worries me, as do the frantic efforts by the Republicans to interfere with voters' access and right to vote. That's why I've just volunteered to help out on election day with the Obama Voter Protection Project.

Ralph