The sky Could fall . . . but probably won't

Richard and I sort of naturally fall into the good cop/bad cop -- or optimist/pessimist -- dynamic. He keeps us grounded and worried, I cheerlead for what's possible, maybe probable, and somewhat cautiously actually believe will happen.

To repeat what I wrote in a comment to his post, I think that the voters he's worried about are already reflected in the polls, explaining why Obama is not leading by at least 20% -- which he probably would if he were white and running in the midst of the worst economic crisis of our generation, in the middle of a war opposed by 60+%, against an incumbant party in deep disarray, with a discredited incumbant president, and with a jaw-dropping 85% of Americans who say the country is heading in the wrong direction.

In addition, McCain's campaign has been a disaster of incoherence, erratic shifts, and gaffes. His Karl Rove type negativity is backfiring (sure it stirs the base, but he's got those votes anyway), and his choice of Palin has excited many but turned off even more. He tries to run away from Bush (but it's hard to do when he's on tape as bragging that he supported him 90% of the time). And that's also a double-edge sword. The lower his support drops, the more his Bush-bashing is also bashing his base who still support Bush. They have nowhere else to go, but they might stay home.

Now in the home stretch, it's probably too late to introduce anything new; only a national disaster or a real, as opposed to a fake, Obama scandal would have much effect. At this date, it comes down to money for final TV ads and the get-out-the-vote (GOTV) ground plan -- and Obama has him way over-matched in both.

One other factor: of course, polls can change, but the trend is still toward Obama just 11 days before the election. The two strange ones that got some notice this week with Obama leading by only 1% have been explained by Nate Silver. One of them wildly oversampled evangelical voters and the other extremely distorted the 18-24 age voters. It had them going for McCain 74-22. Now, with all other polls showing that age group going for Obama by margins of 25-35 points, this is just not believable. Nate calculated the statistical odds of that 74/22 for McCain being a true reflection as 55 billion to 1.

Even with those two 1% polls averaged in, however, this weeks tracking polls average out at 7.4% lead for Obama, with 5 of the 15 polls giving him a double digit lead. And the statewide electoral votes tell an even bigger story. He's now leading in Indiana, and the latest poll in Georgia has Obama leading by 1% -- within margin of error, of course, but it's the trend. GA wasn't even considered a battleground state until about a week ago.

But don't worry, Richard. I do still worry. About surprises. About stealing elections in key, close states. And about Obama's safety.

Ralph