Three tracking polls that include 1 day post-debate (9/25 to 9/27) have Obama leading by 8% (Gallup), 6% (Rasmussen), and 5% (HotlineFD). The full effect won't be evident for 2 more days (they cover a 3-day spread). Of course you can't separate debate effect from McCain's DC stunt effect. And there is still an undecided or other vote of 6% to 11% in these polls.
I'm guessing that it's those previously uncommitted voters that Obama was going after in the way he handled the debate and that the polls will reflect that more in the next couple of days, when the 3-day spread will all be post-debate. This it, more of the undecided will swing into Obama's column.
Even more encouraging though is the electoral vote tracking at FiveThirtyEight: Obama is now leading in electoral votes 325.5 to 212.5. This is a rapid change and reflects CO, MI, VA, PA, and NM leaning strongly to Obama; OH, FL, and NV leaning to him; and even Indiana leaning slightly to him. In addition, he has made some inroads in MO and NC, so that they are only slightly leaning to McCain now.
Ralph
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2 comments:
Oh, the tension of it all! I don't know if things are always this volatile. I can't seem to recall things that only come every four years. But the tension this time seems maximal. Maybe it's because the stakes are so high.
Thanks for keeping up with these numbers. I have periods of being obsessed followed by times [like now] when I can't bear to look.
Just thirty-seven more days of this. I'm praying that McCain tries a few more desperate stunts to pull things out. I'm thinking even the Republicans are wearing out with his antics. And I'm really hoping for the Evangelical Cinderella Shotgun Wedding in Wasilla, AK to top off McCain's perfectly amazing run to the finish...
My first vote was cast for Adlai Stevenson in 1952, and I have followed every one since then closely. There've been some tense moments, but never anything like this.
I don't think there's been one where you had both a primary and a general that were such high wire acts of tension and suspence.
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