I think the Conventional Wisdom about tonight's debate is wrong. I think it doesn't matter how Palin performs. Oh, it will matter to the media, but not to voters. I think they have made their decision and, barring a blow up, it's Obama.
Look in particular at the recent polls in Pennsylvania, where Obama is up by double digits. This is in a state where the majority of voters don't agree with him, and a large number find it difficult to vote for a black man. During the primary, these voters surged for Hillary, despite the fact she shared little, other than skin color, with them. No amount of reasoning could shake them. Once they committed, they were loyal to the end.
I think they have made the same committment to Obama. I think Palin's overwhelming stupidity in the Couric interviews, combined with McCain's seeming to blow up the initial bailout agreement, and his subsequent performance as the arrogant, grumpy old man in the first debate with Obama, really made Pennsylvania blue collar workers decide, this is not the person we want to vote for. McCain trying to run on Palin's skirttails doesn't help with that demographic group, either. Blue collar workers can be very stubborn, but once they've decided, they'll back their candidate no matter what.
Palin's words, combined with SNL's devastating satire of her, has made her a laughing stock, and no one wants to say, 'My candidate is the laughing stock'. McCain's crotchety behavior has made him seem old and possibly out of it. No one wants to be seen as voting for an old man who is out of it. Especially if his back-up is a woman who is clueless.
I think the polling trends show that voters have decided, we've heard enough, we don't want to listen any more, let's get it done with.
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Richard, I agree that 90+% have made up their minds, and the debate won't change them. But there's still that small group of undecideds who might be influenced, who are looking for that final indefinable impression that will reassure them about one ticket or the other.
My hunch is that it will only enhance the Obama-Biden ticket. Anyone who thinks Palin is OK for VP is probably already decided. Those very few who haven't drunk the koolaid are not likely ones to be won over by her charm-over-substance style.
But, even if it doesn't sway voters, it's great political theater.
She didn't win. That's for sure. But she didn't collapse on the stage either, like with Couric.
But mostly, I don't think I can watch much more of Sarah Palin. She's beginning to grate on my [and everyone else's] nerves.
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