The Big Picture

For a moment, I will put aside poll numbers and try to look at the big picture. There is no way, short of some major national security disaster, that Obama can lose -- and perhaps not even then.

He has crossed the crucial threshold of being seen as presidential and trustworthy with that awesome responsibility. Voters now see him as the stronger leader and better at handling the economic crisis. Voters overwhelmingly think he is more in tune with their beliefs. Though it's close, they now would choose him as the one they trust in the event of an unexpected major crisis (aka terrorist attack).

Doubts about all of those issues were what kept the race close up until recent weeks. Obama's steady, calm, assured responses in the two debates and in the economic crisis have turned this around. McCain's own poor performance in all those has only helped Obama; but Obama won it for himself.

McCain had few choices, and he blew those. He tried, but couldn't really run away from his support of most of Bush's policies. So he had to run with the baggage of the worst president in history, an unpopular war, and now an economic tsunami. All factors that promise a landslide defeat.

Unless he could discredit Obama personally and exploit people's fears and prejudices, he could not hope to win. So he tried that, and it backfired.

Don't look for him to give up yet. He will try one more dramatic stunt, one more Hail Mary pass. It could be the only thing he hasn't tried: ressurecting the old John McCain that people used to like and respect.

But it is too late. He's stuck with his choice of Sarah Palin, and he's stuck with the campaign he's created, and he's stuck with an economy he has no fix for. And, in the end, he's stuck with himself, who as we've learned isn't really that "old John McCain" we thought we knew either.

Ralph