The NY Times has an excellent analysis page on the 2008 election. Not only is there a chart broken down by various demographic categories, you can compare the results, category by category, to previous elections going back to Reagan.
http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/exit-polls.html
Perhaps the most important lesson candidates might learn from this election is that the old notion that you begin with a base of white voters, then add minorities to bolster your totals, is no longer necessary. A successful presidential candidate can build a base of African-American, Latino, and Asian voters, and use white voters to supplement that.
This should lead to a greater emphasis on inclusive elections and policies. If the Republicans continue to focus on rural, white fundamentalists, they will fail to adapt to the demographic realities of this country. That 'base' is not large enough to win a national election, and because their beliefs are so narrow and rigid you cannot build an inclusive platform around them.
It may get ugly in the South, as this group of voters feel their power threatened, but Obama's election should provide an impetus to move our country forward into an era of tolerance, accommodation and emphasis on shared goals.
As for this blog - I spoke with Ralph yesterday, and we have decided to cut back our posting. We will post on every Monday. Of course, we also leave open the option of posting more frequently, as the urge to spout off hits us. And if anyone feels the need to comment on something we haven't discussed, notify us by talking about it in a comment to the most recent post and we will respond.
But for now, look for our new posts to appear weekly, on Mondays.
Friday, November 7, 2008
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Wrapping up the numbers
I haven't yet found the right words to say what I feel about this historic election of Barak Obama, so I'll put that off a bit longer.
Just a few more words about polls. Now that North Carolina is officially called for Obama (thanks, Richard; you did good), it brings his electoral count to 364. Now, for all I've made of the great polling analysis outfits, RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight, there is one other measure of how the campaigns are going that is very simple.
It's called InTrade, and it's based on the idea that you get more accurate predictions if people "vote" with their pocket books. People actually place bets on who they think will win. Not who they want to win, but who they're willing to bet money on. Just like at the race track.
There are several of them, but InTrade does it state by state. Then they add up the electoral votes of the candidates by who is leading in each state betting pool.
The Obama/McCain split has been pretty consistent, with a few deviations from time to time, since last summer when I began following it.
And guess what that magic number for Obama has been for most of the past 3 months: 364
So, unless Missour's final count turns out to go for Obama, which looks unlikely, InTrade would have to take the prize for absolute accuracy. If it goes for Obama, then he would have 375, just 3 short of the 378 that George Will predicted and that everyone thought was way too high.
Ralph
Just a few more words about polls. Now that North Carolina is officially called for Obama (thanks, Richard; you did good), it brings his electoral count to 364. Now, for all I've made of the great polling analysis outfits, RealClearPolitics and FiveThirtyEight, there is one other measure of how the campaigns are going that is very simple.
It's called InTrade, and it's based on the idea that you get more accurate predictions if people "vote" with their pocket books. People actually place bets on who they think will win. Not who they want to win, but who they're willing to bet money on. Just like at the race track.
There are several of them, but InTrade does it state by state. Then they add up the electoral votes of the candidates by who is leading in each state betting pool.
The Obama/McCain split has been pretty consistent, with a few deviations from time to time, since last summer when I began following it.
And guess what that magic number for Obama has been for most of the past 3 months: 364
So, unless Missour's final count turns out to go for Obama, which looks unlikely, InTrade would have to take the prize for absolute accuracy. If it goes for Obama, then he would have 375, just 3 short of the 378 that George Will predicted and that everyone thought was way too high.
Ralph
Fox News Points Out How Scary It Was
I know it's post-election, but Fox News Chief Political Correspondent Carl Cameron revealed information that makes it clear the choice of Palin was an outrageously dangerous one that could have put the entire country at risk if McCain had been elected. No matter who you voted for, no one should ever, ever nominate someone whose ignorance is so extreme.
According to Fox News - Fox, the right wing lap dog -
The McCain people felt Palin lacked "a degree of knowledgeability necessary to be a running mate, a vice president, a heartbeat away from the presidency"
Partly because
Palin didn't understand Africa was a continent, or a series of countries. She thought it was 1 country in itself. She actually asked her aides if South Africa wasn't just a part of the country of Africa.
She had no idea which countries were in NAFTA(the US, Canada, and Mexico - DUH!). She couldn't name the countries in North America.
She was totally unfamiliar with basic conservative philosophical positions, like American exceptionalism.
She had "real problems" with basic civics, governmental structures, municipal/state/federal governmental responsibilities.
McCain wouldn't even let her go on O'Reilly - according to O'Reilly - unless McCain was sitting beside her to bail her out should her ignorance get her in trouble.
She refused preparation help for the Couric interview, then blamed her staff when she self-destructed.
Again according to both O'Reilly and Fox News' Cameron, Palin cracked under the pressure of the campaign. She threw tantrums, screaming and throwing things, when she viewed negative press clippings. She cracked over the 'pressure' or bad press? God forbid what would happen if she had a real crisis to deal with.
She was so angry and nasty towards her staff she reduced them to tears.
One of the stories the McCain camp tells now to show how Palin was clueless, is of the time the campaign went to her hotel room to pick her up and she greeted them at the door wrapped in a towel, having just stepped out of the shower.
She was a shopaholic who would go out and buy clothes even after the McCain campaign provided her with that $150,000 wardrobe. According to two knowledgeable sources, a vast majority of the clothes were bought by a wealthy donor, who was shocked when he got the bill. Palin also used low-level staffers to buy some of the clothes on their credit cards. The McCain campaign found out last week when the aides sought reimbursement. One aide estimated that she spent "tens of thousands" more than the reported $150,000, and that $20,000 to $40,000 went to buy clothes for her husband. Some articles of clothing have apparently been lost. An angry aide characterized the shopping spree as "Wasilla hillbillies looting Neiman Marcus from coast to coast.
This isn't about clothing, it's about deceit. Just like hiding her emails.
To McCain's credit he did not know about this. Aides knew he'd be pissed at the clothes shopping, so they kept that information from him. McCain himself rarely spoke to Palin and vetoed her request to speak at his concession speech.
Remember, the sources for this information - Fox News, Bill O'Reilly, the McCain campaign. Not the 'liberal media'.
But this was beyond selecting an incompetent running mate. This was about making a crass political decision that willingly put the country at risk merely for political gain.
According to Fox News - Fox, the right wing lap dog -
The McCain people felt Palin lacked "a degree of knowledgeability necessary to be a running mate, a vice president, a heartbeat away from the presidency"
Partly because
Palin didn't understand Africa was a continent, or a series of countries. She thought it was 1 country in itself. She actually asked her aides if South Africa wasn't just a part of the country of Africa.
She had no idea which countries were in NAFTA(the US, Canada, and Mexico - DUH!). She couldn't name the countries in North America.
She was totally unfamiliar with basic conservative philosophical positions, like American exceptionalism.
She had "real problems" with basic civics, governmental structures, municipal/state/federal governmental responsibilities.
McCain wouldn't even let her go on O'Reilly - according to O'Reilly - unless McCain was sitting beside her to bail her out should her ignorance get her in trouble.
She refused preparation help for the Couric interview, then blamed her staff when she self-destructed.
Again according to both O'Reilly and Fox News' Cameron, Palin cracked under the pressure of the campaign. She threw tantrums, screaming and throwing things, when she viewed negative press clippings. She cracked over the 'pressure' or bad press? God forbid what would happen if she had a real crisis to deal with.
She was so angry and nasty towards her staff she reduced them to tears.
One of the stories the McCain camp tells now to show how Palin was clueless, is of the time the campaign went to her hotel room to pick her up and she greeted them at the door wrapped in a towel, having just stepped out of the shower.
She was a shopaholic who would go out and buy clothes even after the McCain campaign provided her with that $150,000 wardrobe. According to two knowledgeable sources, a vast majority of the clothes were bought by a wealthy donor, who was shocked when he got the bill. Palin also used low-level staffers to buy some of the clothes on their credit cards. The McCain campaign found out last week when the aides sought reimbursement. One aide estimated that she spent "tens of thousands" more than the reported $150,000, and that $20,000 to $40,000 went to buy clothes for her husband. Some articles of clothing have apparently been lost. An angry aide characterized the shopping spree as "Wasilla hillbillies looting Neiman Marcus from coast to coast.
This isn't about clothing, it's about deceit. Just like hiding her emails.
To McCain's credit he did not know about this. Aides knew he'd be pissed at the clothes shopping, so they kept that information from him. McCain himself rarely spoke to Palin and vetoed her request to speak at his concession speech.
Remember, the sources for this information - Fox News, Bill O'Reilly, the McCain campaign. Not the 'liberal media'.
But this was beyond selecting an incompetent running mate. This was about making a crass political decision that willingly put the country at risk merely for political gain.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
The morning after
Hey, Richard. You're right, of course, your states came through and mine didn't. Thanks for that.
What a sweet morning after . . . although I have to admit, I'm a little slow getting going this morning. With sleep deprivation, physical exhaustion from standing for 8 hours as a poll watcher, and emotional exhaustion from 21 months of this . . . I'm a little numb.
I haven't quite assimilated winning into my emotional DNA.
Back to winners/losers: As of 10AM, it's looking like our GA senatorial candidate Jim Martin may force a run-off with Saxby Chambliss. With a Libertarian candidate taking a few 3.4%, Chambliss is leading with only 49.9% with 96% counted. It turns out they still had a lot of absentee ballots to count when we all went to bed last night. It's rumored that they are mainly in Fulton County, which went big for Obama. Now that would be huge and almost make up for not taking the state for Obama. In fact, moreso, because Obama's got more than enough EV's -- and he could use another conversion from R to D in the senate.
Also, here are my bragging rights, Richard. I couldn't deliver the whole state; but my current county of residence, Fulton -- as well as my home town county, Washington -- went big for Obama. And this is in Bible belt, semi-rural, middle Georgia. So, there !!
Ralph
PS: Not to rub it in, but my numbers guru was right on the money in almost every race -- Obama popular vote 52.3 to 46.4% (+ 5.9% and Nate predicted 6.0%. No Bradley effect.). And it includes a 1.0% win in NC and a 3.7% loss in GA. A few not-quite-on misses: He had predicted a 1.5% win for McCain in IN, and he underestimated Obama's surprisingly big win in NV. And Missouri is still too clase to call, and he gave it to Obama with 0.1%.
What a sweet morning after . . . although I have to admit, I'm a little slow getting going this morning. With sleep deprivation, physical exhaustion from standing for 8 hours as a poll watcher, and emotional exhaustion from 21 months of this . . . I'm a little numb.
I haven't quite assimilated winning into my emotional DNA.
Back to winners/losers: As of 10AM, it's looking like our GA senatorial candidate Jim Martin may force a run-off with Saxby Chambliss. With a Libertarian candidate taking a few 3.4%, Chambliss is leading with only 49.9% with 96% counted. It turns out they still had a lot of absentee ballots to count when we all went to bed last night. It's rumored that they are mainly in Fulton County, which went big for Obama. Now that would be huge and almost make up for not taking the state for Obama. In fact, moreso, because Obama's got more than enough EV's -- and he could use another conversion from R to D in the senate.
Also, here are my bragging rights, Richard. I couldn't deliver the whole state; but my current county of residence, Fulton -- as well as my home town county, Washington -- went big for Obama. And this is in Bible belt, semi-rural, middle Georgia. So, there !!
Ralph
PS: Not to rub it in, but my numbers guru was right on the money in almost every race -- Obama popular vote 52.3 to 46.4% (+ 5.9% and Nate predicted 6.0%. No Bradley effect.). And it includes a 1.0% win in NC and a 3.7% loss in GA. A few not-quite-on misses: He had predicted a 1.5% win for McCain in IN, and he underestimated Obama's surprisingly big win in NV. And Missouri is still too clase to call, and he gave it to Obama with 0.1%.
Hey Ralph, My People Came Through
Hey Ralph, I noticed on the election map that the states I lived in came in big for Obama. Massachusetts 65%, Washington 58%, Pennsylviania 55%, and it even looks like he'll win North Carolina with 50%.
What happened in Georgia? You failed to deliver the 'Cracker State' for our candidate.
I hope you do better next time or we're just going to have to put you out to pasture.
richard
What happened in Georgia? You failed to deliver the 'Cracker State' for our candidate.
I hope you do better next time or we're just going to have to put you out to pasture.
richard
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Voter Intimidation Already
I received this eyewitness report from a person manning the polls in Virginia.
I showed up for my first shift handing out ballots and showing the flag
at about 8:50 and left at 10:15. Voting at that hour was very light,
but many federal workers showed up before the doors opened at 6:00 AM,
and through the first hour the line was out the door. By 8, I'm told,
waiting was zero or just a few minutes. This is typical of this
precinct, no matter what the total voters are. There will be another
pulse, probably larger, between around 4:30 or 5:00 PM and closing time
at 7:00pm.
The precinct offered two ways to vote: touch screen and optical scan.
We urged all Dems to choose the paper ballot optically scanned as that's
a far more secure way to do things.
We did have some trouble. There were 4-6 Democratic workers, including
an outside lawyer plus an inside watcher and inside lawyer. The
Republicans sent one middle-aged woman with a hard looking face. She
approached every voter and offered a Republican sample ballot. If the
voter turned her down & said he/she wanted to vote Democratic, the GOPer
got mad and began haranguing the Democrat. We took names and phone
numbers. the 7 year old son of one such victim began to cry when the
GOPer said that she was very upset, very frightened for the boy if Obama
won.
Finally the chief precinct worker came out and looked. Then the
school's security officer chatted with the gal who was told she could
hand out ballots and chat but could not intimidate. She asked if she
could walk further away from the voting place and continue. "No. Not
on school property."
When she wouldn't take that for an answer the school principal sent for
the County's police. When I left two officers were reading her the riot
act and demanding that she either quit voter suppression, or they would
remove her from the site. But shortly after I left to get some rest
before going back in the PM.
So anyway, voter suppression tactics are not limited to lower class and
black neighborhoods. The median income in Great Falls, VA is pushing
hard on $75K, maybe higher. Our lawyer said that 4 years ago at the
same polling place there had been genuine suppression going on inside
the polling place by Republican poll watchers.
I showed up for my first shift handing out ballots and showing the flag
at about 8:50 and left at 10:15. Voting at that hour was very light,
but many federal workers showed up before the doors opened at 6:00 AM,
and through the first hour the line was out the door. By 8, I'm told,
waiting was zero or just a few minutes. This is typical of this
precinct, no matter what the total voters are. There will be another
pulse, probably larger, between around 4:30 or 5:00 PM and closing time
at 7:00pm.
The precinct offered two ways to vote: touch screen and optical scan.
We urged all Dems to choose the paper ballot optically scanned as that's
a far more secure way to do things.
We did have some trouble. There were 4-6 Democratic workers, including
an outside lawyer plus an inside watcher and inside lawyer. The
Republicans sent one middle-aged woman with a hard looking face. She
approached every voter and offered a Republican sample ballot. If the
voter turned her down & said he/she wanted to vote Democratic, the GOPer
got mad and began haranguing the Democrat. We took names and phone
numbers. the 7 year old son of one such victim began to cry when the
GOPer said that she was very upset, very frightened for the boy if Obama
won.
Finally the chief precinct worker came out and looked. Then the
school's security officer chatted with the gal who was told she could
hand out ballots and chat but could not intimidate. She asked if she
could walk further away from the voting place and continue. "No. Not
on school property."
When she wouldn't take that for an answer the school principal sent for
the County's police. When I left two officers were reading her the riot
act and demanding that she either quit voter suppression, or they would
remove her from the site. But shortly after I left to get some rest
before going back in the PM.
So anyway, voter suppression tactics are not limited to lower class and
black neighborhoods. The median income in Great Falls, VA is pushing
hard on $75K, maybe higher. Our lawyer said that 4 years ago at the
same polling place there had been genuine suppression going on inside
the polling place by Republican poll watchers.
Documented Voter Fraud
Okay, let's not get paranoid but already voters in West Virginia, Texas and Tennessee have talked about computerized voting machines trying to flip their votes to the candidate they didn't vote for. Yesterday Mike Connell, the Republican IT guru who created Ohio's 2004 election result network, was deposed in relation to a lawsuit looking into vote fraud in the 2004 presidential election.
http://www.velvetrevolution.us/#071808a
And Princeton University reports that the voting machines used in New Jersey and elsewhere can be hacked into in 7 minutes by anyone with "basic computer knowledge".
http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9118204
What does this mean? I guess, if there are surprises, we need to all be vigilant and persistent and follow up to make sure all allegations of vote fraud are investigated.
http://www.velvetrevolution.us/#071808a
And Princeton University reports that the voting machines used in New Jersey and elsewhere can be hacked into in 7 minutes by anyone with "basic computer knowledge".
http://www.computerworld.com/action/article.do?command=viewArticleBasic&articleId=9118204
What does this mean? I guess, if there are surprises, we need to all be vigilant and persistent and follow up to make sure all allegations of vote fraud are investigated.
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