More than the daily tracking polls, I'm fascinated with watching the electoral vote predictions, based on latest polls at FiveThirtyEight.com. This site is produced by Nate Silver, who not only accumulates and updates state by state polls on a daily basis, but he also factors in the reliability of various pollsters. So you get not just raw data but the results of analysis of data.
Obama has been steadily and rapidly climbing in the past 2 weeks. Today the predicted electoral vote would be 329.3 to 208.7. (270 needed to win)
Nate uses a rating scale based on the polls, factoring in how recent they are and his reliability ratings, then maps it out on an ascending scale for each state: tie, tilting, leaning, likely, safe.
As of today, the states that have been considered in play get these ratings:
For Obama: 329.3
Tilting: Florida
Leaning: Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire
Likely: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota
Safe: New Mexico, Oregon, Iowa
For McCain: 208.7
Leaning: North Carolina, Missouri
Likely: Montana
And Indiana is tied.
Another interesting electoral map to watch is InTrade.com, which is not based on polls but on actual investments (bets) by individuals in who will win that state. This is flashing into the headlines today because the latest results are giving it to Obama 353 to 185. That is people voting with their pocketbooks, ie whom they think will win, not necessarily whom they prefer.
These numbers follow the FiveThirtyEight ratings with these exceptions: Indiana goes to McCain, but North Carolina goes to Obama.
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2 comments:
HuffingtonPost has two different results for InTrade, and it's not clear which one is later. The difference is which one gets NC.
A second posting of the site give NC to McCain, making the totals 338 to 200. These values change rapidly according to investments placed. So NC seems to be teetering, meaning that about half the people betting think Obama will take NC.
Either way, it would be a very safe win if the election were held today.
I ventured to small-town central NC over the weekend. I have never seen so many McCain/Palin signs. My Raleigh subdivision is pretty universally Obama/Biden country. The population demographics of NC favor the city vote over the country vote, so NC outcome will depend on how many city votes McCain gets. It will be close.
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