Don't get carried away

Just look at the gloom coming out of Republican circles: insiders advising McCain to cut his losses and turn to trying to save other Republicans down ticket. People like Elizabeth Dole, likely to lose in NC, pushing the idea of "divided government" as a rationale to return Republicans to Congress. The trouble with that argument, for them politically, is that it acknowledges they will lose the White House. Others are predicting a civil war within, or even the death of, the Republican party.

And the McCain camp itself is said to be turning into a circular firing squad, with everybody blaming someone else for the debacle. Sarah Palin is heading off in her own loony direction, no longer talking to her handlers. She's now saying that Obama would set up a totalitarian, "collectivist" government that 'takes what you thought was yours and gives it to everybody else . . . like they do in countries where the people are not free.' (hint, hint . . . communist)

And this, in the UK newspaper written by their reporter in Colorado:

Aides to George W.Bush, former Reagan White House staff and friends of John McCain have all told The Sunday Telegraph that they not only expect to lose on November 4, but also believe that Mr Obama is poised to win a crushing mandate. They believe he will be powerful enough to remake the American politicl landscape with even more ease than Ronald Reagan did in 1980.

OK -- so they're getting a little carried away. How much change can he bring about with the war and the huge debt that they have left him?

On our side, my statistical guru Nate Silver is doing a little "carry away" of his own. His statistical calculation of Obama's chances of winning: 95.7%. Claiming that if Obama wins all the tossup states in which he's now ahead, plus Montana, North Dakota, and Georgia where he has a chance -- he still will have only 396 electoral votes and would have to win West Virginia to reach the 400 mark. How did 400 get to be the magic number? It takes only 270 to win, remember? Maybe 400 is the magic for "mandate."

He's right of course, and it could happen. Nate is a very careful, analytical guy, so I'm not sure how to read what sounds like getting carried away. Does it really look that good?

Now, even I'm getting worried about over-confidence, tempting fate, shades of the 1948 "Dewey Wins!!" headlines. Just be sure to vote and do everything you can to get others to vote, and join me as a poll watcher to make sure that everyone's right to vote is honored.

We'll know soon.

Ralph