Thursday, October 30, 2008

Early Voting Results

These statistics are interesting, but I think they mistakenly assume those who are registered as Democrats automatically vote for Obama, and Republicans automatically vote for McCain. The latter may be more true than the former. I also question the percentage totals - hard to believe 46% of NC voters have already been to the polls, although, to be honest, nearly everyone I've spoken with in the last 3 days have voted. Still, these are the only figures I've seen so far and they come from a source in a discussion group who seems to be reliable.

AS OF TODAY, 15.77 million people have voted.

In Arkansas, 21.4% of the total 2004 vote is already in
In California, 18.4%
In Colorado, 44.6%
In Florida, 33.9%
In Georgia, 41.8%
In Illinois, 15%
In Iowa, 24.3%
In LA, 13.5%
In ME, 14.4%
In NV, 45.2%
In NM, 39.7%
In NC, 45.8%
In OH, 8%
In TN, 45%
In TX, 23.9%
In WA, 13.5%


Early Voting percentages based off current party poll breakdowns:

Obama leading 51-46 in Colorado
Obama leading 53-45 in Florida
Obama leading 51-46 in Georgia (based off racial breakdowns in the absence of Party)
Obama leading 49-48 in Louisiana
Obama leading 51-46 in Maine
Obama leading 58-38 in Nevada
Obama leading 59-36 in New Mexico
Obama leading 56-42 in North Carolina (52-46 broken down by race)

Here's a new link I just found
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

2 comments:

Ralph said...

A skewing factor in any such stats on early voting is that the Obama campaign has been insistent and intense in its get-out-the-vote drive among its supporters.

In GA, there will certainly be a massive voter turnout overall, but I suspect a much higher percent of early voters are Obama supporters than the overall vote will be.

So I think any projections about who's winning the early vote are worthless.

Ralph said...

Richard's figures are current early voting expressed as percent of the total 2004 voting.

Today's paper gives GA early voting results through Tuesday as nearly 25% of registered voters. And we still have Wed, Thus, and Fri to add to that. So I suspect we will have a least 1/3 of registered voters having already voted by Nov. 4.

And the lines will still be long.