The early voting trends are pretty astounding in some states, NC and Georgia in particular.
Although Republicans usually vote early more than Democrats, that has been reversed this election.
In NC, Democrats have nearly a 2 - 1 edge in the first 1 million votes cast. African Americans, who make us 21% of the electorate, account for 28% of those who voted early in NC. In Georgia, 35% of the nearly 1 million early votes cast have been by African Americans, although in last election they made up only 25% of the total.
Early voting is particularly attractive, I believe, to poor and working class people because it gives them flexibility. It's attractive to African-Americans because they don't have to go to the 'official' voting place, where they are questioned and harassed, but can go to community centers in their neighborhoods, where they are helped by friends.
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Another reason African-Americans are voting early is that the Obama campaign's GOTV campaign is already operating intensely, urging people to vote early.
I get 4 or 5 emails a day asking me to come help make phone calls. It is incredible how well organized the Obama ground game is. They're not waiting for Nov 4, but they will swamp the McCain operation on that day too.
It's one of the reasons I'm optimistic that Obama will overcome all the other possible negative factors that might affect the results.
Just read in the Atlanta paper this morning: the Obama campaign has a work force of 3,000 volunteers in Georgia working on getting-out-the-vote.
Now that it seems possible that Obama could take GA, they're doubling up by sending in another 100 volunteers from other states.
the turnout for NC could be slightly misleading. Even though a lot of Democrats are voting early, remember that many registered Democrats have voted Republican for President in the past -- 2000 and 2004 being the most recent examples. I see the cable pundits talking about the heavy Dem turnout in NC, and they just don't seem to understand that party registration does not necessarily translate into party votes in NC.
I do think that the results this time could be different, but I will believe it when I see it, on election night.
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