RealClearPolitics has an electoral vote map up that is very revealing. It gives Obama 264 electoral votes in his "safe" column (270 needed to win) and McCain 163 safe state votes.
Eight states are in the toss up column: OH (20), IN (11), VA(13), NC (15), FL(27), MO(11), CO(9), NV(5) totaling 111 votes.
Look at the math: Obama needs only 6 more votes, meaning he has to win only 1 of the toss ups (even if its Nevada, it would be a tie, and the Democratic House would elect Obama). Currently he's leading in 5 of the 8, with NC and IN fluctuating around a tie and McCain leading slightly in MO.
But McCain has to win EVERY ONE of the toss up states because he needs 107 votes to bring him to 270.
Nothing short of Obama being caught in bed with the proverbial dead woman or live boy is likely to allow that to happen. I don't even believe a major terrorist attack would turn people back to McCain at this point. Obama has proved the more calm, steady and presidential.
Check it out at: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/
Ralph
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FiveThirtyEight is reporting this morning that, even if Obama should win ONLY Nevada of the eight battleground states, it might not end in a tie.
Nebraska, along with Maine, divides it's electoral votes according to who wins each district. Although NE is a solid red state with 5 votes, Omaha's district itself is quite likely to go to Obama, making it 4 and 1. This would give him the 6 votes, along with Nevada's 5 to reach 270 rather than a 269-269 tie.
It's highly unlikely that he would lose OH and VA AND still win NV, but any little extra is insurance.
538 also says that McCain is going after this one vote in Omaha too. He's pulling out of Michigan but sending Sarah Palin to a rally in Omaha this week. Which seems like a measure of desperation -- giving up campaigning in Michigan and going after one vote in Nebraska.
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