It doesn't help when big Repubican names start embracing your opponent, when both senators from Maine publicly call on you to stop the robo calls in their state, when your opponent has way more money for the final month, when all signs say there will be no last minute calvary riding to the rescue in the form of Swiftboat ads because even the rightwing nuts don't want to throw away their money on a lost cause, and when your candidate(s) are making such gaffes and misstatements, like McCain saying to a Western PA rally:
"I think you may have noticed that Senator Obama's supporters have been saying some pretty nasty things about western Pennsylvania lately. [boos from the crowd]. "You know," he continued, "I couldn't agree with them more." [stunned silence].Makes him sound befuddled, doesn't it? Or like Palin declaring, once again, that as VP she would be "in charge" of the Senate -- completely misunderstanding the Constitutional role of the vice president, which is only to preside over the senate and vote in case of a tie. She thinks she would have (or could take) constitutional power to make deals and control committees, apparently. Even VP Cheney didn't go that far.
OK. So, the polls. RealClearPolitics's average of 12 recent national polls gives Obama a 7.6% edge, with 4 of those polls giving him double digits, including the highly respected Pew Research group at 14%. In addition the Ipsos/McClatchey poll now shows Obama leading by 8% on taxes and on family values, which had been McCain's issues.
As for electoral votes: RCP counts them this way:
Obama 259 (solid), 27 (leaning), 286 (total).
McCain 137 (solid), 23 (leaning), 160 (total).
Toss-up 92.
Toss up states: FL 27, OH 20, NC 15, IN 11, MO 11, NV 5, ND 3.
Leaning to Obama: VA 13, CO 9, NM 5.
Leaning to McCain: GA 15, WV 5, MT 3.
Imagine: Georgia, Montana, and North Dakota are in play.
Could McCain possibly win? Yes, but only if he takes ALL his solid AND leaning states, plus ALL of the toss up states (Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Dakota) PLUS Virginia AND either Colorado or New Mexico.
And how can Obama win? All he has to do is take his solid states plus 11 more EVs from his leaning states. Just Virginia would do it (he's leading by 6%), or both Colorado (leading by 7%) and New Mexico (up by 5%) without Virginia. Let me make this even starker:
Obama can lose ALL of the toss up states (FL, OH, NC, IN, MO, NV, and NC) and lose Virginia as well -- and still win the election ! ! ! !
Looks pretty good to me.
Ralph
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With a new poll taking 9/19-9/22, in Ohio, Obama is now leading in that state by 12%. RCP has consequently moved Ohio from tossup to leaning Obama.
This gives Obama a total of 306 EVs just from his solid and leaning states alone, without any of the tossup states. That's a 36 safety margin, even if McCain should win FL, NC, IN, MO, MT, and ND.
With a new poll taking 9/19-9/22, in Ohio, Obama is now leading in that state by 12%. RCP has consequently moved Ohio from tossup to leaning Obama.
This gives Obama a total of 306 EVs just from his solid and leaning states alone, without any of the tossup states. That's a 36 safety margin, even if McCain should win FL, NC, IN, MO, MT, and ND.
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