The numbers continue to be encouraging and, if they hold up on election day, would make for an Obama landslide. Race may still be a factor, but some are suggesting that the "Bradley effect," where people tell a pollster they will vote for the black candidate but then don't, is perhaps overblown. When Harold Ford lost his TN senate race in 2006, it was by a smaller percent than pre-election polls had shown. And it didn't seem to be a factor in Obama's primary races.
Latest polls: Gallup tracking 9/5-9/7, Obama leads by 11%. Rasmussen 9/5-9/7, Obama leads by 6%. These don't reflect the Tuesday debate. Reuters/C-span/Zogby, 9/6-9/8, Obama by 4%; this poll always has Obama lower than other polls.
As to electoral vote polls: FiveThirtyEight.com gives it to Obama 346.8 to 191.2, with Obama taking the battleground states: OH, FL, CO, NV, NH, VA; slight lead in NC and a toss up in IN and MO. PA, MI, WI, and MN, once considered in play, have all moved into the safe column.
As to where investors are actually putting their money, the InTrade.com statewide poll gives it to Obama 353 to 185, with NC going to Obama.
Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com also has an interesting take on "undecided" voters. The Pew Research" group did a poll which was slightly different from just asking who you would vote for, and then counting as undecided any who do not pick one or the other. Pew asked "who have you decided against?" This gets at voters who might be "persuadable" to change their vote.
Here 42% said they had decided against McCain and 37% had decided against Obama.
Every one of the numbers continue to favor Obama. And even the conservative pundits are writing negative things about McCain and Palin.
Now if we can just keep them from intimidating voters to suppress the vote or tampering with the machines.
Ralph
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Posts
2 comments:
As of late morning, the InTrade advantage for Obama has widened even further to 364 to 174, now putting Missouri, as well as North Carolina into his "leaning" column.
The intriguing thing about this InTrade tracking is that it isn't about people's preference as to the winner, it's about who they think will win and are willing to bet on. Some people think it's more accurate as a predictor than the opinion polls.
Maybe others aren't as interested in following the numbers as I am, but to me it's more fun than looking at the stock market these days.
The American Research Group poll now has Obama leading in West Virginia by 50 to 42.
This is not one of the more reliable polls, according to Nate Silver's rankings; and it may not hold up when other polls come in.
But even if it is off by a lot, becoming competitive in West Virginia is remarkable.
Post a Comment