Thursday, October 9, 2008

Fear and loathing

John McCain and Sarah Palin are engaging in the politics of fear and loathing. Completely bankrupt of ideas or leadership, they have nothing else to try except stirring up hatred and bigotry in their crowds.

It is despicable. It is immoral. Moderate Republicans (a few are left) should hang their heads in shame and denounce these tactics. It has gone beyond hard-hitting negativity. McCain has supposedly ruled out using Jeremiah Wright for fear they would be blamed as racists. But what they are doing is just as much racial bigotry as was the appeal to "states rights" back in the 1960s when George Wallace and Richard Nixon did it.

Although I am worried that it might work, I am also fairly sure that this time it will not work.

They've been at it long enough to show up in the daily tracking polls. And so far any effect seems negligible. Comparing Rasmussen tracking polls of favorable/unfavorable ratings on 10/3 and 10/8, Obama's unfavorables rose by 1.3%, while McCain's unfavorables rose by 2.0%. Not statistically significant, but at least it suggests that it isn't working.

In contrast, last March when the Jeremiah Wright story broke, Obama's unfavorables increased by 5% in that week.

Other polls look great. Look at Michigan. As recently as a month ago, Michigan was considered perhaps the most important swing state. A week ago, McCain gave up and completely pulled his campaign out, cancelling any further TV ads. Today, Obama leads by 16% in Michigan. Independents there have gone from favoring McCain by 12 points on Sept. 21 to favoring Obama by 11 points today -- a 23 point flip.

And in the past couple of days, even West Virginia has become a tossup state. One poll released today even had Obama leading by 8% in WV. A month ago, it was a solid red state.

And 5 national tracking polls over the last 3 days range from +5 to +11 for Obama.

It could all change quickly. But it doesn't look like fear-mongering with Ayers will do it. McCain may yet be "forced" to use the Jeremiah Wright tapes, which would indeed make the racist appeal explicit. Message to Johnny B: that won't work either. You've lost, "my friend."

Ralph

1 comment:

Ralph said...

Former Governor of Michigan, William Millikan, endorsed McCain in the primary race. But now he says, "He is not the McCain that I endorsed."

Stopping short of explicitly withdrawing his endorsement, he made it very clear that he does not approve of the campaign of attack and smear in stead of talking about the issues.