Is the race tightening?

The McCain camp is obviously looking for any sign that the race is tightening, as it usually does the last week. A few polls have shown some slight movement in his direction, like 1 or 2%, and offset by similar movement in Obama's direction in other polls.

Obama still leads in every one of 11 tracking polls, for an average about 7%. This includes a Fox News poll from last week in which he leads by 9%.

With each day closer to 11/4, it gets less and less likely that McCain can pull off an upset. Here's what Nate Silver says about a "tightening" race:

There is a lot of discussion going on about whether the national race is tightening; our model concludes that it is not. But what would meaningful 'tightening' look like in terms of the Electoral College?

Let me be oddly specific here. In order to conclude the Electoral College has tightened to the point where the outcome on November 4 is at least moderately uncertain, I would want to see the following between now and the election. Call it the 2/2/2 condition:

John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls (sorry, Strategic Vision) in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania.

If this condition is met, then I think there could be some drama on Election Night (though by no means would McCain be the favorite). If not, then it's very hard to imagine McCain winning.

In Nate's own poll analysis, Obama is up by 7.5% in Colorado, 11.9% in Pennsylvania, and 7.7% in Virginia. Getting to within 2% in two of them -- without any trend in that direction here in the last week before the election -- seems pretty unlikely to happen.

We still have to get out the vote and get every vote counted. Look for the Obama operation to be massive, smoothly coordinated, and effective. I learned at my poll watcher training session yesterday that they will even have "Comfort Team" members assigned to provide water and snacks for people standing in line. That's over and above the thousands of volunteers who will be making phone calls, scheduling drivers to bring people to vote, and poll watchers to make sure they get to vote.

Ralph