"McCain did well, but not well enough." That was the considered judgment of the debate by none other than arch Republican Bill Bennett, commenting as one of the CNN debate analysts.
Not a single one of the many CNN panelists made a case for McCain tonight. James Carville said, in his typical backwoods vernacular: "It's over. Time to bring in the dogs and water the fire."
That's my take on it too. This was McCain's last chance to turn it around, and he didn't do it.
The CNN polls exceeded even my expectations: They gave the win to Obama by 54% to 30%, and scored him higher on every measure (economy, Iraq, leadership, likeability) except handling terrorism, where McCain still had a slight edge.
Only David Gergen sounded a note of caution, saying that we still don't know how much effect racial prejudice will have, as in the Bradley effect where people tell poll takers they will vote for a black candidate and then don't. Some say that could cost Obama as much as 6%.
But one of the other panelists pointed out that did not happen in the primaries, that the polls were very accurate in predicting and did not show any Bradley effect.
My prediction of a landslide stands.
Ralph
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Posts
5 comments:
I watched the debate with 5 friends and felt neither candidate did great. Both avoided questions, and relied on answers we'd heard before. The strongest impression was the odd physical presence of McCain. He was uncomfortable to look at. He came across as old and crotchety. And how did Obama come across? The libertarian in our midst said about Obama - As I was watching, I forgot he was black.
The consensus here was that it was a draw, which would be a win for Obama.
Watching the clips on the morning shows I thought Obama looked great. He countered McCain's attacks, and enunciated his own programs clearly. McCain seemed small-minded, petty. Lines line "that one" won't appeal to anyone, except Palin's - and let's be honest, this race is between Obama and Palin, not Obama and McCain - most rigid ideological supporters and racists.
McCain's ideas seemed outdated. His concepts of warfare were stuck in the Vietnam era - we have to win, victory not defeat, etc. He can't claim to be able to work in a pbipartisan manner when he referes to his opponent as "that one". And his constant pandering "my friends" rang false and calculated, as did his line about Obama's tax plans being as hard to nail to the wall as jello. Hard to make something like that stick when Obama presented his ideas quite clearly.
McCain failed to respond to Obama's repeated contention that McCain's plan would offer $300 billion to CEOs and corporations, or that McCain would tax people's health benefits. Those might be the most important 2 issues of concern to viewers.
Of note to me - which I'm sure others noticed - was McCain's icy attitude towards his wife. He did engage in one obligatory photo-op hug, during which he never looked at her. AFter that, he ignored her, avoided her, walked around her, creating space between them. She was left to stand by herself, isolated on the stage. I felt sorry for her, for the disrespectful way he treated her.
I'm more concerned, though, about Palin and her Brownshirts. Someone at one of her rally yells "Kill him" about Obama and she says nothing? At another rally, her supporters, wielding thunder sticks, surround and threaten the media? In Florida, reporters are 'escorted' away from Palin supporters gathered in a public park, not even allowed to talk to them?
Hitler came to power during a time of financial crisis too, and gained his support by focusing the crowd's anger and frustration on those who 'aren't like us'.
Palin has turned from a joke, into someone who might be quite dangerous.
Richard, your reminders of Hitler's rise out of economic crisis, his brown shirt tactics, and Palin's appeal to those same small minds -- chilling !!!
They will lose this election, but look for Palin to rise again. She's got the ambition, she's now had national exposure and won herself a backing from the ultra right wing and, in turn, has re-energized the base.
Look for her to become their leader and mount a strong campaign in 2012. And, if she's really smart about it, she'll spend the next 4 years getting herself educated about government and the world.
Then we would have a for real Obama-Palin race.
The result would depend on whether Obama and solid majorities in Congress can get much done, given the fiscal constraints Bush is leaving them trapped in.
If we're still in dire straits, we might see a right wing arising, led by a hockey mom from Alaska.
That's the one thing Bush has perhaps succeeded at: hampering the government with so much debt that it can't enact the social programs Democrats want.
Re McCain's shunning Cindy after the debate: he was obviously in a sour mood. Did he realize he had blown it? Or had they had a fight just before the debate? I'll bet she takes a lot of abuse from him.
He also didn't shake hands with Obama afterward. It's hard to tell if that was intentional. In the clip, Obama reaches out his hand, McCain turns to Cindy seemingly to put her forward, and Obama winds up shaking hands with Cindy. And by the time they finish, McCain has turned away. Not sure if he meant to snub him or whether he was being deferential to Cindy. It's more likely he was using her to avoid shaking hands himself with Obama.
But he was definitely angry. They left the stage pretty quickly, while Barak and Michelle lingered for a long time, talking to audience members. Obama made a special effort to go over to the guy who had asked the question where McCain said all he'd learend about leadership he learned from navy CPO's and shook his hand. McCain did it for show; Obama actually talked to the man afterward.
A retraction of the above comments about the (un)handshake:
TPM has provided a clip that shows that Obama and McCain had already shaken hands and embraced immediately after the debate, before the wives came onstage.
Their coming together was what prompted the laugh of the evening, when their standing together prompted Tom Brokow to say "You guys are obliterating my script," his closing comments which were projected on the wall behind them.
So I retract my comments about the handshake, but not about McCain's angry mood.
Re the Bradley effect: some are saying that's an old worry.
1. That LA mayor's race was 26 years ago, and racial attitudes have changed a lot, except for those who aren't going to vote for Obama anyway and would never say they would just to avoid telling a pollster that.
2. In the recent TN senate race where Harold Ford lost by 3%. Despite last minute racist ads, he lost by a narrower margine than the pre-election polls predicted.
3. This didn't seem to be a factor in the primary polls for Obama.
4. In this particular race for Obama, wxtra high turnout of black voters will probably offset any Bradley effect among white voters.
Post a Comment